The Research For China International Capital Flows-Scale、 Way And Influence Factors

The acceleration of International short-term capital flows takes the country at adisadvantage at a disadvantage and courses many cases of financial crisis. Developedsince the end of the twentieth Century financial crisis, which more or less have theinternational short-term capital flows of the shadow as from1989American creditsystem collapse to the1992European savings financial suffering from shock, andArgentina in2000and later the Vietnam economic downturn in the financial crisisthat erupted in2008, as a result of capital angle profit properties exist, the short-terminternational capital impact on the countries of the world will not stop. In recent yearsour country economy development momentum all the way forward, to attractinternational short-term capital flows into the large scale, to the financial market ofour country and economic system also brought opportunity and challenge. Hand tohelp domestic enterprises short-term financing, on the other hand, a threat to thefinancial stability of the system, increases the pressure on RMB appreciation,monetary policy has been distorted. Nowadays the international short-term capitalflows the development of to what extent, it features which to have? In our country theinternational short-term capital flow scale, and through what channels for China?What factors are worthy of our attention? In2012, as China’s economic growthexpected to cut, external economic environment has become more and more complex,pull move economy to three carriages only investment was not impaired, stronginvestment growth, on the basis of the policy to guide the other two carriages back onthe road to our country economy is essential, and the foundation of health problemsthat we have to face.In this paper, according to the international short-term capital flow theory andChina’s actual development situation, first from its nature of start, on the internationalshort-term capital flows the development stage and the characteristic of new periodfor analysis, and then on the basis of the international popularity of the three ways tocalculate our country international short-term capital flow scale, comprehensive measurement of I international short-term capital flows in actual size, discusses fromthe1991-2009data change that development trend and feature. Then summarizes theanalysis of China’s short-term international capital flow mode and way, selected fourrepresentative of the effects of short-term capital flows into China factors, and the useof econometric methods for modeling and empirical test, discuss the impact of thesefactors on short-term capital inflows affect how much and empirical analysis. Finally,the rapid development in China on the way how to guide the international short-termcapital flows for our country to bring more positive effect, how to establish theeffective supervision and management mechanism, to prevent the possible impact ofthe policy proposal.