A Research On Econometric Models Of Consumer Behavior Of Residents In Hebei Province

The law of long-term maximization of Consumer demand is the most basic law of economic operations and is the fundamental point of formulating economic policies and decision-making producers for government. In the condition of market economy, whether the consumer decision-making power can be exercised effectively will be the prerequisite of optimal allocation of resources. Decision-making departments usually follow the macroeconomic goals in the process of formulating economic development planning, but lack the basis of micro-economic analysis of consumer behavior, so the government will be likely to deviates the optimal path. Therefore, the decision-making departments need to analysis the consumer behavior from the microscopic point of view in the course of formulation and implementation of economic development plans. In this paper, the establishment of dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model will improve KR model and AP model method that is used to estimates consumption elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and using the improved method, to estimate the marginal utility of consumption elasticityθand intertemporal elasticityσof Hebei province through the law of principle of least squares; Improving adaptive expectations hypothesis of the consumption model using Ramsey model, in order to endogenous the original exogenous biochemical function of the model; Establishing the endogenous adaptive expectations hypothesis consumption econometrics models by calculations of risk aversion coefficient and other parameters. Discussing how to amend the optimal consumption decision-making in the introduction of uncertainty; Analyzing the factors affecting consumer behavior by Application of GM (1, N) dynamic model, and applying the Chow test's dummy variable method to calculate as well as compare the elasticity of marginal utility of the two-stage calculation. This paper achieve the goal that analyzing Macro Consumption issues in Hebei province from the micro point of view, and find causes and solutions of issues related to consumption in the process of economic development, and to propose reasonable policy recommendations for expand domestic demand in Hebei Province.