The Statistical Study On The Railway Development And The Impact Of Global Factors

This paper through research on the development trend of global railway construction market provides reference for Chinese railway construction enterprises to implement the strategy of "going out" to directly participate in international market competition.This paper takes the path of interdisciplinary research on statistics and economics that based on market analysis theory and railway development history raises main factors of supply and demand affecting the railway development, including the demand determining economic industrialization level and constraints of rail transport substitute services and supply determining technical level and financial constraints, and further with use of statistical methods proposes statistical indicators reflecting the total size of railway construction market and its influencing factors, including the railway operating mileage, gross domestic product (GDP), per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP , etc., thus providing theoretical basis for further studies.The market analysis research framework in this paper is set upon statistics and econometric model that determines relevant explanatory variables and explained variables in accordance with the results of theoretical research. After collection of indicator data in 1993-2006 basically covering 27 major countries worldwide, this paper applies statistical methods to make descriptive analysis and data packets and through unit root test, Johansen test, regression analysis and other techniques establishes econometric model for empirical study, thus having access to important parameters that identify the relationship between the main variables currently affecting the global railway development and the amount of railway development so as to conclude the development trend of global railway construction market and the functioning mechanism of the influencing factors.Data analysis on global rail market shows that from the overall view, the global rail market is still growing with the growth of GDP, but the growth rate is less than that of GDP. The demand of national economy for the railway is the fundamental factor to determine the railway development. Studies on developed countries show that when per capita GDP is900-3,000 U.S. dollars, they see the "adequacy" of traffic and transport as a basic national policy objective and attach great importance to the important status of railway in sustainable development; when per capita GDP is less than 1,000 U.S. dollars, the rail freight maintains strong growing momentum. In the later stages of industrialization, the railway's position in national economy shows a declining trend that the productivity growth and development of tertiary industry leads to gradual decline of rail passenger market share, but the freight market share maintains at a high level. At present, by virtue of new technologies and the major trend of environmental protection, there is still large room for the development of global railway construction market. In the context of economic globalization, Chinese enterprises in implementing the strategy of "going out" to directly participate in international market competition should make pinpointing analysis on specific issues of different countries so as to formulate corresponding countermeasures.