Forecasting Research On The Consumption Demand Of Civilian Vehicle In China Based On Panel Data Model

In recent years, with the economic development, the civilian vehicle ownership of Chinese is rapidly growing。Automotive industry has become a pillar industry in China. However, with the increase of the vehicle ownership, the social cost is also increasing. Therefore, an accurate grasp of the development trends of regional civilian vehicle is important for the government work,。In the Previous studies, the prediction of the civilian vehicle ownership often considered the whole country as research unit, but the regional imbalance may bring forecast and analysis error. So, this article has done a nonlinear static and dynamic analysis about 31previncies based on the panel data.Following the introduction of the automobile consumption theory and panel data model theory, this article briefly analyzes the country's automobile consumption , then, according to urbanization level it divide 31 provinces into three groups,respectively, the static panel data model can fit the provincial vehicle consumption with a high degree. The last part, according to the division of actual economic region,we analyze automotive consumption demand in eastern, central and western regions with dynamic panel data model.Finally, we get several conclusions: 1) the development of the provincial civilian vehicle ownership rate fit well with the "s"-type trends, and now all provinces are in accelerating stage. 2) If the provincial population and per capita GDP increase with its average growth rate, most of the provincial vehicle ownership rate will reach a turning point between the year 2015 and 2020, and then enter a period of slow growth, when Beijing will be the first province which can get its inflection point. 3) Currently, in Beijing, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, the income elasticity of the car ownership rate has reached the maximum, and it will maximize between the year 2008and 2015 for other provinces.4) Results indicated the civilian vehicle ownership of the whole country will respectively break 128 million and 219 million in the year 2015 and 2020. 5) The vehicle consumption is clearly different among eastern, central and western regions. 6) In western region, the vehicle ownership can be greatly driven by the passenger demand, while the increase of the road density is not very important in three regions.