Studies On The Diffusion Research And Factor Analysis Of Civilian Vehicle In Shang Hai

As a pillar industry in Shang hai, the proportion of automotive manufacturing output in GDP has exceeded20%during the year of2012. Studying the civilian automobile industry in Shang Hai, it’s good for us to promote economic growth by promoting the civilian automobile industry growth. Also, it provides the basis for government to make better automobile industry plan. The article consists of five major components. The core of this paper is the proliferation research of Shang Hai civilian automobile industry and the factor analysis. Besides, the other part of this article is made up of literature review, situation analysis and the suggestion.Specifically, the first part is a review about the diffusion model and the diffusion model of civilian automobile industry. The review of diffusion model describes the birth of Bass model and the variants of the model. Later scholars gradually release the assumptions of Bass model, which makes the model more realistic. Meanwhile, many scholars have made efforts to the diffusion research of the civilian automobile industry, which lays a solid foundation for this paper.The second part describes the status of the development of the domestic auto industry and the civilian automobile industry in Shanghai. It helps us to have a general understanding of the domestic auto industry and the Shanghai’s civilian automobile industry, which lays a foundation to the diffusion research and the factor analysis.The third part is the diffusion research in Shanghai civilian vehicles. Based on1979-2011data of Shanghai civilian vehicles, I use the gompertz model to study the diffusion of the Shanghai’s civilian vehicles. It was found that the Shanghai’s civilian vehicles in thousands will reach an inflection point in2046, and eventually achieve saturation at the level of1027.207. Then, for a further analyze the Shanghai’s civilian automobile industry, the author spread out the factors analysis in the fourth part. On the basis of previous research, the author ultimately finds three factors that affect the amount of civilian vehicles in Shang Hai. They are the Shanghai capita GDP, urbanization rate and Shanghai Volkswagen. The last part is the recommendation to the civilian automotive industry in Shanghai. Based on earlier research, there is no doubt that we can raise the Shanghai’s per capita GDP and improve people’s income level, promote the urbanization process and accelerate the development of Shanghai Volkswagen to promote the development of Shanghai civilian vehicle industry. However, given the environment problems and energy pressure because of the development of Shanghai’s civilian vehicle industry, the Shanghai’s civilian vehicle industry should focus on the development of electric vehicles, new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles and other energy-saving vehicles in the future. Meanwhile, the increase in civilian vehicles also brings lots of traffic problems in Shang Hai, the Shanghai’s government should encourage the citizen to choose the bus travel. As the civilian vehicles company, they may adjust their strategy to develop the bus business and increase the supply of buses in order to ease traffic pressure.