| Monetary policy is an important instrument in macroeconomic adjustment and control in market economy. Effective monetary policy lies on smooth transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is to analyze how the monetary policy and its instruments affect the real economy through various financial variables. It's one of the most controvertible studies in macroeconomic theory domain. It's also the focus and hotspot of the economic reform and study on economic theory in China at present. Therefore, the study of this problem is meaningful in both theory and realities.The research on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism is mainly based on the following two aspects. The first aspect is on the transmission channels'effect mechanism and effect. Generally, there are four channels of monetary policy transmission: credit, interest rate, financial assets price and exchange rate. The second aspect is on the transmission links, to analyze the impact of each transmission behavior change over monetary policy transmission effect. The thesis chooses the methods of channel and effect approach.Bases on carrying out theoretical analyses on above main transmission channel, the thesis adopts the econometric technology methods,such as Vector Error Correction Model, Pulse Response Function, Difference Decomposition ADF test, Granger Causality test and Jonhansen Cointegration test to study 11 economic variables'monthly data from 2000 to 2006.A11 of the above is to test the effectiveness of the credit channel and stock market channel. The demonstration analyses comes to the conclusions that both from monetary policy to credit market and from credit market to monetary policy ultimate targets are effective. So the credit transmission channel is effective. The credit transmission channel will still be the main channel for the transmission of monetary policy in the future;both from monetary policy to stock market and from stock market to real economy. The effective of the stock market channel remains to be improved. The mains body of the thesis are composed by six parts.They are foreword, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy theoretics and econometric technology methods, transmission mechanism of monetary policy's history and actuality of China, the demonstration analyses on the effectiveness of credit channel, the demonstration analyses on the effectiveness of stock market channel,the policy suggestions on improving the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy for China and the end of the thesis. |
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