Research On The Weakening Of Monetary Policy Credit Transmission Channel's Effectiveness In China

Since the reform and opening up,the monetary policy credit transmission channel has been the main channel for China's monetary policy transmission.However,after2002,the effectiveness and importance of monetary policy credit channels have been questioned.From the perspective of effectiveness,with the continuous improvement of domestic financial markets and the continuous development of financial innovation,the way in which micro-subjects rely on bank credit financing has gradually declined.From2002 to 2007,the proportion of credit financing in social financing has continued to decline,thus As a result,the effectiveness of the monetary policy credit transmission channel has been affected.After 2008,the development of financial innovation went further,and the shadow banking business also developed in full swing,which directly led to a further decline in credit financing as a proportion of social financing from 2008 to2013.From 2013 to 2014,the central bank has continuously strengthened supervision of financial markets,so that under the background of deleveraging and managing financial chaos,the proportion of credit financing has increased from 2014.However,changes in financing methods still have a significant impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy credit transmission channels.In terms of importance,the People's Bank of China has liberalized interest rate and exchange rate control mechanisms,continuously promoted market-oriented reforms in interest rates and exchange rates,and used the price mechanism to promote the rational allocation of resources and regulate the healthy operation of the national economy.In order to adapt to the market environment and improve the efficiency of monetary policy,the direction of monetary policy regulation of the People's Bank of China has gradually transitioned from quantitative to price.And this change in policy regulation will undoubtedly have a certain impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy credit transmission channels.In response to the above-mentioned disputes,this article analyzes the effects of China's monetary policy credit transmission channels from 2002 to 2018.From the perspective of the proportion and trend of credit in social financing,the time period is divided into four parts: January 2002 to September 2018,January 2002 to August 2007,September 2007 to December 2013,And from January 2014 to September 2018,fourvector autoregressive models were established.Through empirical analysis through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,it is found that although the role of credit on economic growth still plays an absolute advantage in a certain period of time,the pulling effect of credit on the economy is weakening from the entire time period,that is,credit transfer There is a weakening of channels.Therefore,the People's Bank of China should formulate a reasonable monetary policy,improve the availability of credit resources,and enhance the effectiveness of credit transmission channels.At the same time,the framework for monetary policy regulation should also be further transformed into a price-type to improve the efficiency of monetary policy regulation.