| China is a country that discovers frequently catastrophe. There are some natural disasters, such as earthquakes, snowstorms, typhoons, floods. The occurrence of these disasters often results in numerous casualties, homelessness, major economic losses, and even affect the country's economic stability development. For the purpose of avoiding the risk of a similar catastrophe, the demand for catastrophe insurance is more urgent.As China's insurance industry started late and the lack of Catastrophe insurance, many catastrophes are still in non-catastrophic risk insurance status. For example, after "WEN CHUAN EARTHQUAKE", people pay more attention to the earthquake catastrophe and earthquake insurance system. However, the present, we mainly through the government budget, social assistance, international aid and other means to mitigate earthquake disaster at present, there is no earthquake catastrophe insurance system. Therefore, studying the catastrophic insurance and insurance system has important theoretical significance and practical significance.The loss distributions of earthquakes, floods, typhoons and other catastrophic are quite similar. These disasters often cause huge losses to the same or similar catastrophe risk carrier. The loss distributions of these catastrophic damages show a fat-tail distribution feature, and the right side features.Levy stable distribution proposed by the twenties in the 20th century. Stable distribution is the central limit theorem for more general form. Normal distribution is a special case of stable distribution. Stable distribution with a fat-tail and non-symmetry, can be a good deal with a fat-tail and tilt phenomena.This article introduces a stable distribution, uses a stable distribution fitting the loss distribution of earthquake risk in China, analyzes earthquake risk and characteristic in our country, and explores the earthquake catastrophe insurance price models and price strategies. This article compares the earthquake catastrophe insurance system for the international practice and theory, puts forward China's earthquake catastrophe insurance system model for building. This article uses a variety of research methods, such as theory and reality, deductive and inductive, qualitative research and quantitative analysis, and seeks to study through the simple and effective method to clear discussion.The dissertation is divided into 5 chapters. The specific content of this dissertation is as follows:This first chapter (introduction) is the overall planning of the thesis. This chapter studies the meaning of catastrophe insurance, classification and characteristics, and the status of earthquake risk, analyzing the international research dynamics and identifying the research paper ideas, research content and research methods.This second chapter describes the stable distribution that focus on the definition of a stable distribution, the random variables simulation of a stable distribution, the parameter estimation of stable distribution.This third chapter (empirical analysis of China's earthquake risk) studies the distribution and characteristics of China's earthquake, and the characteristics of the distribution of China's earthquake losses. This chapter does an empirical analysis based on the 1986-2008 earthquake loss data. The empirical results show that: stable distribution fitting the earthquake catastrophe loss data is appropriate and feasible. The stable distribution to fit the earthquake losses distribution is much better than the normal distribution to, can better reflect the right side and thick tail characteristics of the earthquake date.This fourth chapter analyzes the feasibility of the earthquake catastrophe insurance. This chapter discusses the earthquake catastrophe insurance price model and strategy. This chapter analyzes the stable distribution on the earthquake catastrophe insurance, insurance companies to carry out the role and significance. This chapter analyzes the role of stable distribution and significance about an insurance company to carry out earthquake insurance.This 5th chapter compares the foreign earthquake insurance system, highlighting New Zealand, Japan, Turkey, the United States, California earthquake insurance system. Drawing on the international earthquake insurance system, this chapter puts forward to build China's earthquake insurance system. This chapter makes a simple analysis of earthquake insurance regulatory role and significance using stable distribution.The innovation lies in this article:introducing the stable distribution to analyze the earthquake risk, doing an empirical analysis of the earthquake risk, fitting the loss distribution of the earthquake risk, doing a preparatory work for an earthquake insurance, actuarial pricing, exploring the earthquake insurance system, establishing the earthquake insurance regulatory system. |
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