| Railway is the main artery of our national economy related to production development, standard of living and social welfare. It occupies a very important position in our transportation systems. But in recent years, almost everyone has met the difficulty in getting a ticket in the Spring Festival. In recent years, with the growths of passengers, there is greater pressure on railway transportation, especially in the Spring Festival, May Day and National Day and so on. The tremendous pressure the railway network has to carry has reflected directly the lack of railway capacity. Railway construction has lagged behind the rapid economic growth in our country in a very long period of time.By 2008, in the face of ferocious Global Financial Crisis, China has implanted a proactive fiscal policy. By the end of the year, the State Council issued ten measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth, one of which is to speed up the construction of the railway infrastructure focusing on the construction of a batch of PDL, coal transportation projects and the Western Corridor Railway trunk line. The promoting effect of railway construction investment to economy growth is one of current hot topics.As we all know, railway construction lags behind the economic development level, however, it's obvious that railway construction exert great influences on prompting the economic development. Railway transportation have played an important role in transportation, urban development, industrial upgrading and other aspects. So, how railway construction investment boosts economic growth? How do we rate the positive effect of railway investment on economic growth? Does China's railway construction investment achieve the optimal scale? This article will revolve around these issues to explore. This paper is divided into the following sections: Chapter I is headed with a preface, which makes a brief description of the purpose and significance of this study, domestic and international research status, ideas and methods the article used and possible innovation and limitation.Chapterâ…¡focuses on relevant theory in infrastructure investment and economic growth. First of all, in accordance with the 1994 World Bank development report, infrastructure is defined. Then it describes some factors of economic growth. It pointed out that investment have apparent contribution to the economic growth of China. Final ly,based on infrastructure investment theory describes the economic growth effect of infrastructure investment.Chapter III introduces the incentive from railway construction investment to economic growth from a qualitative point of view. It describes the development of railway construction investment after the founding of China. Then the author analyzes two major economic growth effects of railway construction investment based on infrastructure investment theory.The positive effects of railway construction investment to the national economy are divided into forward-induced effects and backward-rippled effects in two ways. Forward-induced effects are that railway construction investment promotes economic growth through making the demand for other railway-related industry increased in the construction period. Backward-rippled effects are that railway construction boosts economic growth by making transport conditions improved, transport shortened and freight cost reduced after the opening of the railway transport.Chapter IV consists of two parts, which are, promotion effect on Chinese railway construction investment to GDP and the optimal investment scale of railway construction. At first, since how big is the pushing role of railway construction investment on the national economy, the study verifies a long-term and short-term relationship between railway construction investment and GDP by establishing a quantitative analysis of error correction model. In addition, the pushing efficiency of railway construction investment to the national economy is proved.Based on optimal investment in infrastructure scale model, the author obtains the optimal investment scale of railway construction. For whether the railway construction investment in China achieved the optimal scale, author draw the conclusion that in addition to some years, China's railway infrastructure investment had not reached the optimal size, that is, Chinese railway infrastructure investment is not enough in long term. After the reform and opening, the railway infrastructure investment in GDP on average falls short of the optimal size in China and the railway infrastructure investment are in historical debts.But,the 2008 railway infrastructure investment takes a proportion exceeding the optimal investment scale of the GDP. In that case, should China exist the increasing railway investment policy?Chapter V describes the current situation of the railway facilities and railway construction investment. Then the author expressed his views on keeping increasing railway investment combined with the conclusions of chapter III. Finally the author raised some recommendations on how to increase the railway construction investment.In this chapter, combined with the practice and the optimal scale, author voices his opinion about the railway policy. Railway construction investment is higher than the optimal size in short term which reduces the rate of economic growth. But, railway construction investment is insufficient in long term. So, we should maintain the increasing railway construction investment policy unchanged. In 2009 and over the next few years, with China's economy gradually recovers and the rapid growth of GDP back on track, maintaining on a large scale railway construction investment policy unchanged is in line with the objective conditions in China. But it should be noted that when railway facilities meet the needs of production and life after some years, railway construction investment size should fluctuate slight wave according to the optimal investment size. Finally, the author gives his own opinions on how to increase the railway construction investment.For a long time, studies in China focus on some important railway trunk line mainly from micro view. In addition, quantitative analysis is less than qualitative analysis. This article research the contribution of investment to economic growth from a macro point by doing qualitative and quantitative analysis. The conclusion of this thesis is the contribution ratio of the railway construction investment to economic growth and the optimal scale of investment.The promoting effect of railway construction investment to economic growth has become the focus of research in academic field after starting to positive financial policy consisting mainly of railway infrastructure investment. But because the author has little talent and less learning, if wrong, please exhibitions. Thank you!... |
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