Study Of China Power Investment Effectiveness Of Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has experienced rapid growthand has already surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy in the worldin2010. For such a rapid development, while in the developing countries in theinstitutional transformation, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization hasbrought a sharp rise in demand for electricity. However, a certain lack of coordinationbetween the development of the power industry and the national economy, andtherefore in a long time, China’s power supply and demand is always hoveringbetween shortage and excess. National Congress proposed to achieve the goal of acomprehensive well-off society by2020, while the sustained and stable economicdevelopment is the key to achieving this goal. Therefore, the power supply can meetthe needs of economic growth in the coming period—that is, whether the currentpower level of investment can provide enough electricity to supply an extremelyurgent but reality. Currently, the contradiction between supply and demand forelectricity is basically concerned about the electricity demand-side, and the relativelack of research and analysis on the power supply side. Little effect of the backgroundthrough the regulation of electricity demand measures to ease the power supply anddemand, then in order to solve the supply and demand imbalances electricity from thepower supply point of view is an effective alternative. Therefore, through theelectricity supply and demand forecasts with estimates of the power efficiency ofinvestment, this paper study the validity of the China Power Investment.For the power supply and demand imbalances, the paper first through theanalysis since the reform of China’s demand for electricity law, found that electricitydemand presents an accelerated trend of rising; Second use cointegration model toanalyze the long-term relationship between economic growth and electricityconsumption, found that rapid economic increased growth in electricity consumption;Finally, by building the cointegration function between the generating capacity,installed capacity and electricity investment forecast for the next few years, the powersupply capacity, the results show that the basic power supply capacity in the next fewyears to meet the demand for electricity. Power Investment in the power supply anddemand imbalance, is the dominant factor that directly affect the electricity supply. Analyzed by the HP filter analysis methods of reform since the volatility of the ChinaPower Investment, the China Power Investment gap exists, the investment gap yearworking with electricity gaps Year consistent. Through further study found that thepresence of electricity investment gap is mainly due to power-related sector and themarket demand for electricity and the economic situation mispredictions.For power efficiency of investment, we choose the generation of listedcompanies as the research object, Panel VAR models generalize Q investment modelquantitative estimation of the investment efficiency of the sample companies, theresults show that the inefficiency Investment of listed company of China Powerwidespread, some companies over-investment, but in insufficient investment in theoverall power listed companies. Analyzed by binary logistic model lead tooverinvestment factors, found that excellent investment opportunities, debt structure,enterprise scale and ownership balancing factors such as power listed companiesbrought forward over-investment incentive, and the asset-liability ratio governmentintervention, grid tariff to curb excessive investment in certain extent.