National Debt Scale And The Best Distribution Strategy

Government bonds is a tool to make up deficits, and the scale of government bonds is a major field of study subjects. Whether the size of government bonds at a moderate level, and how to determine and optimize the size of Government bonds, is significant to deficit finance in the macroeconomic performance of the regulatory role, and actively prevent financial risks and to coordinate fiscal policy and monetary policy. This article is divided into two kinds of non-war and the war situation on the issuance of treasury bonds scale analysis and simulation, and give the best distribution strategy. In the non-war situation, we make the bond interest rates for state-space, bond issuance for decision-making space, and apply the martingale process of sequential decision-making model to derive the optimal debt issuance strategy; According to the maturity structure of debt, find the best annual total amount of treasury bonds, combined with Markov theory, find a smooth distribution of the period, and then presents the optimal release strategy for the duration of government bonds. In case of war, respectively, we discuss situations with jumps both in Treasury bond volume and growth rate of the establishment of model to simulate the growth of the total national debt, and use the final combination of the above two situations, the establishment of Brown movement and the joint space-time Poisson process-driven model to simulate the situation with jumps both in total government bonds and growth.