Empirical Analysis On The Scale Of Government Bonds Of China

Based on the macroeconomic requirements of objectivity, China started to implement prudent fiscal policies, the core of the tightness appropriate, and focus on coordination, a long-term, in order to avoid their own fiscal policy to economic fluctuations become aggravated factors. Prudent fiscal policies call for China to control the scale of treasury bonds, enabling it to continue sustainable development. In this paper, the economic policy environment to start using the main normative analysis and quantitative estimates right combination of our problems on the scale of treasury bonds. This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter focuses on the introduction of research background, significance, Chinese and foreign research methods and the theory of evolution of the scale of treasury bonds. The second chapter mainly from the two perspectives of the scale of treasury bonds theoretical framework: First, based on the qualitative effect on the economy Treasury bonds stimulatory effect on the economy, crowding - out effect of the scale of treasury bonds, treasury bonds and treasury bonds and monetary liquidity and deficit, inflation dynamics; Secondly, based on Treasury bonds of appropriate scale to the theoretical limits of the scale, and realistic indicators ideal model for the text after laying the theoretical foundation of experience. In the third chapter in the history of China's statistical data on the experience of the scale of treasury bonds, more qualitative analysis of the scale of treasury bonds on the main factors in factor analysis, based on the factor analysis, based on the Granger causality test, select the size of issuance of treasury bonds for Granger again on the issue of government bonds to choose the size and impact of variable VAR model and co-integration test, a co-integration equation and short-term error correction model. Through analysis concludes that the scale of treasury bonds in China is the most crucial factor scale of monetary credit, savings scale, but the scale of treasury bonds and monetary and credit scale, the scale of the residents there are savings related. In the fourth chapter, sound fiscal policy in China under the scale of treasury bonds analysis of the current situation, using the experience of that equation co-integration test of the scale of treasury bonds and treasury bonds to China's future development trends. In the final chapter of this paper, building a harmonic society from the perspective of the experience of the conclusions to the guidance of China's treasury bonds put forward policy recommendations.