Research On Data Quality Assessment Of Broad Money Supply

As an important variable affecting macro-economy, broad money supply has a close relation with income, consumption, investment, price, and balance of payments. It's the basis of making the national macro-economic policies.The data of broad money supply are generally produced and disseminated by the Central Bank.On April 15,2002,China formally joined the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).Improving the data quality of monetary statistics in compliance with the international guidelines has become the focus of China's monetary statistics at this stage.So far there has been no research on assessment and international comparison of broad money supply's data quality. It always has been weak in theory of how to assess and make an international comparison of the statistical data quality scientifically and comprehensively. One feasible approach is to make the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by means of scoring by the experts.Unfortunately, this approach depends heavily on the experts, and whether all the experts have a basic understanding of the statistical data quality of each country is questionable.The thesis contends that using GDDS as a guideline to assess and improve the data quality of China's broad money supply is feasible, and it also can speed up the process to produce and disseminate the data of monetary statistics according to the international guidelines.On the basis of existing researches, this thesis carries out the research from the following four aspects.First of all, this thesis expounds the international guidelines of broad money supply statistics.On this basis, the thesis introduces the history and present condition of China's broad money supply statistics, and makes a comparison with the international guidelines in the aspects of statistical accounting and statistical data dissemination, in order to analyze the international comparability of China's broad money supply statistics.And then, under the background of GDDS,mainly from the aspects of accuracy, timeliness, integrity and accessibility, the thesis makes assessments and com comparisons of the M2 statistical data of China and the United States, which is the first country to start monetary statistics.In the accuracy assessment, Benford's Law is applied to analyze the accuracy of the M2 statistical data of China and the United States, using the chi square goodness-of-fit tests.At last, based on the results of the comparative analysis, the thesis makes some suggestions from the aspects of statistical accounting and statistical data dissemination to increase the international comparability and finally increase the data quality.