Evaluation And Empirical Research On The Quality OfChina's Macroeconomic Statistical Data Based On Benford's Law

The quality of statistical data has always been a public and policy makersconcerned problem.Especially in recent years,China's national economyexperienced unprecedented growth.With the constantly strengthening of China'seconomic growth and its international impact,the accurancy of total economy andrelated statistical data has drawn greater attention.Many scholars have been analyzedthe quality of China's macroeconomic statistics,and some of them concluded thatChina's macroeconomic statistical data are not accurate and are doubtful afteranalysis,they thought that China's macroeconomic statistical data may exitmanipulation;but some of them concluded that China's macroeconomic statisticaldata are accurate,don't exit manipulation.Under these backgrounds,this article try toanalyze the quality of China's macroeconomic statistical data from a newperspective.The artical first introduced the sources,the content,the development,theexpansion and its related theories of Benford's law;and summarized the Benford'slaw's application in data analysis at home and abroad;and discussed the robstness ofthe Benford's law in analyzing data.Second analyzed the accurateness of China'smacroeconomic data both from three aspects.Firstly,the author selected the majoreconomic indicators about the national accounts,government finance statistics,thefinancial sector,balance of pay ments.Take these economic indicators's timeseries statistics from 1950 to 2008, Finally,we concluded that at the confidence levelof 0.05,the statistical data of these four ecnomic sectors are subjected to Benford'slaw,it means that the macroeconomic statistial data are reliably,does't exitmanipulation.In horizontal,the author selected six economic indicators in 31provinces in China,including GDP,regional consumption,gross capital formationregions,the regional government consumption expenditure,the general budget revenueand the general budget expenditure of the regional financial statistics. Take these economic indicators's statistical data in 2008,we concluded that the regionalmacroeconomic statistical data are reliably,does't exit manipulation.these analysisin two aspects also proved that Benford's law is steady in analysing macroeconomicstatistical data.The last part is a summary of the empirical findings and pointed out someconsiderations when we use the Benford's law .Also we discribed the inadequaciesof this article .