Study On Commodity Houses In Harbin

Since reform and opening, real estate market in China has gained rapid development and gradually become the pillar industry in China; it played a very important role to promote the development of other industries in the national economy. Commercial housing market is an important part of the real estate market; its changes are not only related to the vital interests of the consumers but also the focus of social concern. As the special nature of the heterogeneity of products, price formation of regional relatively strong of commercial housing market the study for cities'commercial housing market is necessary. For this, we view commercial housing prices in Harbin as the object of study then commodity analysis and forecasting house prices. Since the reform of domestic distribution system from 1998, commercial housing market has developed rapidly. commodity housing prices continued growth, the city's commercial housing prices have soared, some sections of the housing prices doubled rising in the short term phenomenon of commercial housing price growth rate far exceeded income growth, house prices become a social concern and a hot topic, Stable housing prices have become a hot issue and a main task of macroeconomic regulation and control. Commercial housing prices and close to people's lives, whether on the promotion of economic development or on meet to people's needs, the commercial housing price's changes and trends are all important potentially Therefore, Therefore, study the relationship between factors which affecting commodity housing price, quantitative analysis the impact of various factors, research the commodity movements in housing prices and make scientific predictions has an important significance to determine the price, guidance regulation and management and promote the healthy development of commodity housing market .Grey system theory is major research tool of this paper. Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis using the method of combining commercial housing prices in Harbin study analyzed the impact of Harbin City, the price of commercial housing-related factors, the use of gray correlation analysis method to determine the various factors on the price of commercial housing in Harbin Correlation size; the qualitative analysis of commercial housing prices in Harbin on the basis of the status of the gray theory GM (1,1) - Markov model price forecasting model, based on an analysis the following conclusions: 1) The impact of Harbin, a major commercial residential household wealth status factors, the per capita housing floor area, Harbin commodity prices are mainly driven by the needs of 2) Forecasting results show that products of Harbin City in 2010 showed housing prices continued to rise, end up in Harbin City in 2010 Average price of the quarter predictive value were 6012.6,6311.9,6426.7,6757.6 yuan / square meter, house prices rose overall stability is still the mainstream. But this increase will not show as fast as in 2009, jumping the situation, the rising rate is still small, but compared with 2009, growth will slow. 3) The gray system theory applied to study changes in house prices has a certain reliability and applicability of gray - Markov model is better than GM (1,1) forecasting model results more accurate.