An Empirical Study About Foreign Trade And Economic Growth In Shandong Province

Accompanied with China's reform and opening up and sustained economic growth,the rapid growth of foreign trade is an important phenomenon,which has aroused great interest in academic circles home and abroad. Compared with numerous Empirical Study on China's foreign trade and economic growth,the analysis of the relationship between foreign trade structure and Regional Economic Growth Empirical is relatively small。As a big eastern coastal economy and foreign trade province,Shandong Province, in the process of further deepening of reform and opening up and rapid economic growth,witnesses the obvious change on foreign trade structure which greatly affects the development of foreign trade as well as regional economic growth。Therefore,using empirical research methods to study the changes of Shandong's foreign trade structure and the relationship between this structure and regional economic growth becomes especially necessary。It means not only for structural optimization, Shandong Province, the coordinated development of foreign trade provides empirical support, is also Shandong Province's foreign trade import and export structure of the strategic adjustment of the empirical evidence provided。This paper is based on the classical trade theory, new classical trade theory,the evolution of new trade theory, and the new growth theory, etc., as logic Series starting point for the analysis of data through a large number of Shandong Province in general trade and processing trade of regional economic growth in general influence and role, and on this basis, this paper presents a rigorous empirical analysis of the relationship between Shandong's foreign trade structure and regional economic growth from the following fields:the general trade import,general trade export,processing trade imports and processing trade exports, Here are the following empirical conclusions:(1) Different trade mode behaves differently in promoting regional economic growth in short and long term。In the short term,processing trade plays an bigger role in promoting economic growth than the general trade,which is proved with more per-capita GDP increase in the short term; In the long run,the general trade plays a more important role in promoting economic growth than processing trade. Processing trade,is vulnerable and volatile to external macro-environment impact in the long run and has some negative effects to economic growth。(2)Shandong Province faces the structural difficulties on foreign trade import and export。This is mainly manifested in its regional economic growth pattern,which have great dependence on imports。However, exports trade isn't obvious in promoting economic growth。The co-integration test and generalized impulse response function has also proved that both the general trade imports and processing trade imports can help to promote Shandong economic growth,while exports trade's role in promoting Shandong's economic growth isn't clear。(3) The absence of coordinated and sustainable development capability in Shandong's foreign trade pattern hinders their efforts to promote regional economic growth。The Granger causality testing results show that,there is no Granger impact on Shandong's imports and exports between general trade processing trade。Based on the above analysis,this paper proposes the following countermeasures:(1) Develop new ideas,establish new goals. First,the restructuring of the different enterprises is of great importance in Shandong trade mode's optimization. At this moment, we should pay more attention to private enterprises and their role in promoting foreign trade, increase the proportion of private enterprises in imports and exports。Second,establish the new target of adjustment of import and export structure,and transform of foreign trade growth mode. General trade import and export by the current quantity-based to quality and economic returns;processing trade import and export should be the low-end processing and assembly industries to high value-added, high-tech content in the direction of restructuring and upgrading。Finally,The establishment of fair trade coordination mechanism for the province。The most important thing is to gradually unify the general trade and processing trade policy, treatment, and that the two equal competition, promote and maintain both coordinated and stable development。(2) Actively promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade。Processing trade has become one of the main ways in Shandong's foreign trade,but because of its relatively late beginning and instability in development, therefore, actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of process trade is of great significance for enhancing competitive strength and coordination of sustainable development in Shandong。First, we must reinforce the transformation and upgrading of processing trade of the industrial base , which is the main premise for transformation and upgrading of processing trade in Shandong;The second measure is to optimize the industrial structure, focus on improving the technological content of products to enhance the competitiveness of export products, which is the basis for transformation and upgrading of processing trade;The third one is to enhance the deep processing carry-over capacity, enhance industrial linkage,Make full use of international and domestic resources and two markets, and avoid weaknesses, play to their comparative advantages, enhance economic efficiency, which is the key to transformation and upgrading of processing trade;The forth one is to optimize the industrial layout of processing trade in Shandong, and gradually narrow the east coast and Midwest in Shandong Province Lu region, the gap between the central and western inland areas should take full advantage of the processing trade industry, to undertake the transfer of the eastern coastal areas of the historic opportunity to drive the province's large-scale development of processing trade, which is the path of transformation and upgrading of processing trade;The last measure is to improve the processing trade, the government service system, give full play to the functions of the government, which is restructuring and upgrading of processing trade of Shandong important safeguard。...