Yunnan Province Of Production Safety Accident Statistics And Data Analysis And Prediction

In resent years, the economy of Yunnan Province maintains a rapid development. The energy raw materials and transportation markets are boasting and increasing, in a stage of continuing expansion. Such situation brings Yunnan Province the safe production severe challenges. Though the safety situation in production is stable, the total amount of accident is decreasing since 2004, in the boarder and minority areas, the productivity is relatively lower, the basic transportation condition is much poorer, the input on safety production is significantly undercapitalized. Thus the supervision and administration system of safety in production still can not meet the requirements of economy development. Now the toll number is still big, which has a far distance to the Party Central Committee, the state council and our people's requirements. In terms of prevention and decrees of accidents there is lots of work to do. More effective and practical methods should be worked out and adopted to solve the existing problems. At present the forecast can contribute to the solution of these matters. It is a scientific approach with given accident data analysis to forecast unknown and future developing trends. In this way to gain a more scientific understanding of present situation and further to propose more exact measures in case of unreasonable actions. Also it can provide theoretical support to study in this issue. Besides, the controlling index examining regulation has been implemented in work safety since 2004.9 absolute indexes and 8 relative indices are examined annually. Since the examining indexes are cutting, more pressure in work safety comes out into being. Therefore to forecast the yearly accident situation and scientifically estimate the toll number monthly according to the resent years'data becomes the urgent task.In order to solve the above problems, this dissertation adopts SPSS analysis software and EXCEL as well as data analysis of the work safety in Yunnan from 2004 to 2009. Firstly, it clarifies the data with season index. Secondly, it analyzes the data to study the four types of accidents from basic situation, relativity, seasonality and significant differences in partnership. By conclusion of inner characteristics, focusing on the close relationship between railway accident and toll number, regression analysis is conducted. Meanwhile the relationship between provincial national economy and social development data and four types of accident is analyzed. Thirdly, SPSS 17.0 is adopted to forecast the Holt-Winter linearity and seasonality index models. Fourthly, the accident situation is forecasted by the analysis of the data from year 2004 to 2009. Finally, combining the analysis and forecast conclusion the dissertation proposes the solutions and suggestions in safety work of Yunnan, and gives detailed recommendations to monthly controlling indexes in 2009.