The Simulation Of Carbon Storage And Biodiversity Function In Nanjing City Based On Land Use Change

In recent ten years, the regional land use simulation is a hotspot of LUCC research, dynamic simulation of land use change is a very complex process. It is not only affected by natural, social, economic, technical conditions, but also because of the time and space scope. In this case, the land use change model provides an important means for us to understand the process of land use change and driving factors of change. This study aims at the international widely used model-logistic modeljoined the autocorrelation On the basis of traditional Logistic binary regression,based on land use data of 1985a、1995a、2005a and 2015a, Combining the CA-Markov model, the land us chage of three different scenarios (natural growth situation, ecological protection and land optimization scenario) of Nanjing in 2025 was predicted, This paper further used InVEST model, studiedthe distribution of carbon and biodiversity service function and change under the land use change in 1985,1995,2005,2015, and the distribution of carbon and biodiversity service function of the year of 2025, The results showed that, Goodness-of-fit of Autologistic regression model was higher than the traditional Logistic model, Forest, grassland, wetland, farmland, construction land and unused land had the larger promotion goodness-of-fit, respectively from 0.7995,0.7985,0.8417,0.7985,0.8417 to 0.8057,0.8042,0.8339,0.8042 and 0.8339, in addition,, the CA model accuracy validation Kappa value was 0.82 and 0.85 of the year 2005 and 2015, it was a good prediction effect.there was the obvious space difference of land use in the different scenarios, in natural growth situation, the construction land increased rapidly according to the original rate, farm land was took up seriously,50600 tons of carbon reducing, and the overall environment quality reduce seriously from 2015a, habitat degradation is obvious. In ecological protection situation,the rate of farm land into construction land slowed by 5%, the natural habitat quality overall improved, habitat degradation was ease morely than natural development situation;In land optimization situation,balancing the land needs developed,and pay ed attention to protect the ecological environment, construction land increase 64% of the natural growth, carbon reserves by 37600t, was 74.31% of the natural growth, the natural habitat quality overall improved, habitat degradation was ease morely than natural development situation,but that were below the ecological protection situation,It ensured the balance of economic development and ecological protection. Ecological protection and land optimization scenarios for the future land control effect are good, can provide scientific decision-making reference for the local land use planning.