| Centralized energy supply may probably trigger a serial of security, economic and environmental issues. During the last 10 years, several grid accidents happened, and energy conservation and emission reduction have become the key work. It’s under this background that distributed energy-supply system (DES) has attracted widespread attention. Distributed energy-supply system is effective and environment-friendly, which has been developed for several decades, while in China it’s wildly viewed as the kind of project which is of great social benefit while little economic benefit. What is also developing quickly during the same period is trading of voluntary emission reductions. Trading of voluntary emission reductions could change social benefits, specifically emission-reduction benefits, into economic benefits, which is very attractive to distributed energy-supply system. Therefore, the paper is mainly about benefit evaluation of distributed energy-supply system under voluntary emission-reductions trading, aiming at optimizing the investment decision and promoting the development of distributed energy-supply system and low-carbon economy.The paper is consisted of theory summary, situation analysis, evaluation method research, empirical analysis and development suggestion. Chapter 1 is focusing on theory summary, mainly concluding a review of research at home and abroad on DES technology, DES investment and carbon trading market. The research framework is also brought out in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 is about situation analysis, introducing the present situation of DES and voluntary emission-reductions trading, followed by analysis of their combination. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 are core of the paper. Three benefit evaluation methods have been put forward, which is general benefit-evaluation method, benefit-evaluation method based on Monte Carlo and benefit-evaluation method based on real option theory. Empirical analysis of these three methods has been lunched in Chapter 4. Based on above, several development suggestions have been thrown out in Chapter 5, concluding suggestions to investors and policy suggestions to policy maker.Two conclusions has been summed up. Firstly, voluntary emission-reductions trading could effectively improve the profitability and risk resisting ability of DES project, and then increase the value of the project. Secondly, the uncertain factors have great influence on DES value, especially initial investment and price of natural gas, which makes risk control system of great concern. The paper has pointed out that investors should attach great importance to voluntary emission-reductions trading and make full and flexible use of voluntary emission reductions. Policy maker then should pay great attention to create a friendly environment for DES to developing into voluntary emission reduction project, and make efforts to reduce the adverse effect of uncertain factors. |
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