An Empirical Research On The Efficiency Of Regional Distribution Of CO₂ Emission Quotas Of China’s Carbon Trading Market And Its Influence Factors

The establishment of the carbon trading pilot programs of seven provinces in China means that the greenhouse gas emissions reduction in our country has formally being marketization. It is highly important to set up all aspects of the carbon market scientifically and reasonably as to achieve the establishment of a unified national carbon market in 2016, and the following smooth connection of national carbon market with existing pilot market. However, with the presence of uncertainty factors, such as market power and contract costs, the initial allocation of carbon emissions has an important influence on the operation of the carbon market and the sustainability of economic development. As regional resources endowment and economic development level of our country is differentiation. It is of great practical significance how to consider the regional differences and select appropriate and reasonable allocation between regions under the condition of a certain amount of carbon emissions. Considering the limitations of the existing allocation, as to the grandfathering’s lack of cost effectiveness and efficiency and the auction rules’ lack of policy feasibility, this paper tries to seek a new way of carbon emission rights allocation with the using of the ZSG-DEA(Zero Sum Gains DEA) model--achieving the DEA efficiency level--considering the population and economic differences between regions. This paper firstly evaluate the efficiency levels of history distribution method with the ZSG-DEA model and found that the average efficiency levels are modest. Secondly, according to the initial results, the paper calculated the efficiency-maximized distribution plan through the multi-iterative method. Lastly the paper metrically analyzed the various factors on CO2 emission direction and magnitude and found that the level of economic development is the main factor that influencing the quantity of CO2 emissions. Affected by the trend of economic development as well as the limitation of resource, the absolute sum of CO2 emissions will continue to rise in a short time. But the decline in carbon intensity can be accomplished by continuously improving the efficiency of energy use and manufacturing process as well as strengthening the environmental regulation on foreign capital enterprise.