Research On China's Carbon Trading Market Based On The Shadow Price Of Carbon Emission

In the context of China's forthcoming national carbon trading market,this study focuses on the shadow price of carbon emissions.Firstly,we defined carbon dioxide as undesirable output,and usingthe super-efficient slack based model?SBM?based on data envelopment analysis?DEA?,the shadow prices of carbon emissions for 30 provinces were measured,which provide suggestions on how to price carbon for China's forthcoming national carbon trading market.Secondly,we combine the shadow price of carbon emission efficiencies,analyzing the inter-provincial differences in carbon emissions and the regional direction of carbon abatement in China.On this basis,the spatial correlation in carbon abatement costs among provinces in China was analyzed exponentially,and a time–space two-way fixed SDM was established to analyze the factors affecting carbon abatement costs.The innovation of this study lies in the definition of carbon emission efficiency;most existing studies cannot give a definition of carbon emission efficiency,whereas here,we define it as the ratio of the target emissions to actual emissions.The target emissions can be obtained through the process of solving the shadow price of carbon emissions.Through the super-SBM and SDM,and by using Max-DEA and Matlab,we can draw the results as follows:first,for provinces with high carbon emission efficiencies,such as Guangdong,Fujian,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and other eastern regions,whose actual degrees of CO₂emissions are close to the target emissions,higher carbon abatement costs make it more difficult to achieve further carbon efficiency;for provinces with low carbon emission efficiencies,such as Henan,Hebei,Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Yunnan,Gansu,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Guizhou,and other developing regions,which show higher carbon emissions and lower carbon abatement costs,it is easier to increase carbon emission efficiency.Second,according to the spatial correlation analysis of the shadow price of carbon emissions,the carbon abatement costs between provinces are regionally concentrated;the areas with lower emissions are concentrated in the eastern areas and the areas with higher emissions are concentrated in the western areas,which indicates that China should pay more attention to the cooperation between provinces.Third,on the basis of spatial correlation,we establish the SDM to explore how to reduce the carbon abatement costs.Through the model equation,we can establish the factors affecting the shadow price of carbon emissions,which can provide a way to reduce carbon emissions deeply.In the results,China's carbon emission reduction is in a crucial period,and the policy for reducing carbon emissions should not only start by achieving common development between the west and east areas but also by reducing the carbon abatement costs,which can be achieved by increasing the degree of openness to the outside world and optimizing the structure of energy consumption.