The Burst Of The Water Environment And Preliminary Study Of The Theories And Methods Of Non-burst Risk Analysis

The sudden-happened and non-sudden discharge of deleterious materials into water environment is the main cause of catastrophic pollution events. Therefore, Studies on theories and methodologies for risk led to by sudden-happened or non-sudden discharge of deleterious materials have been attached more and more importance. Researches in this field, however, due to the lack of in-depth and systematic exploration, result in the deviation of theories and methodologies and practical applications. Based on Timothy's definition and study for water quality risk (1992), by applying new outcomes of classical uncertain theories and methods, water environmental risk is redefined and non-sudden and sudden-happened risk are primarily explored. The contents of this paper include quantitative analysis with stochastic process and probability methods for sudden-happened risk, frequency analysis for sudden-happened risk events, non-sudden risk analysis with uncertain approaches such as random process, fuzzy mathematics and interval numbers, and water environment system programming considering risk as well. As one of the parts of environmental risk assessment field, the paper focuses on the occurrence, simulation and control of water environmental risk, aiming at providing theoretical and practical basis for risk decision-making and risk management.