Oil And Gas Pipeline Pitting Corrosion Depth Time Series Forecasting Methods And Applied Research

Along with the development of national economy ,Pitting is given more and more attention as a main destroy form of Oil & Gas pipeline. The category of studying pitting should not localize at the filed of understanding how pitting happened and how to protect etc ,It also should include the problem of pitting predication. The effective pitting predication can offer scientific decision-making in Deciding on whether Oil & Gas pipeline need to repair or to replace , It is propitious to control the accident of pitting perforation and prolong the whole use-life of Oil & Gas pipeline,It has all-important economic and social meaning,, The pitting depth of Oil & Gas pipeline is directly connect with how to treat the period of checking, maintaining and whether need to replace pipeline, So studying pitting depth is more practical.First based on the times series analysis, This paper according to the step of times series predicting to predict the pitting depth of Oil & Gas pipeline. Firstly, The cause of pitting , influence factor and growth are analyzed by the numbers, It is educed that pitting depth times series of Oil & Gas pipeline is a non-calm times series which with trend. Secondly, Aiming at the non-calm nature, Base on the theory and modeling means of calm times series, ARIMA model of almostlinear and mixing model of nonlinear are builded up to depict the mutative rule of pitting depth. And each model is applied to validate the feasibility of times series analysis with a actual times series of pitting depth in Hua-ge line. The results shows that the two models all can be applied to predict the pitting depth of Oil & Gas pipeline, Which proved that it is feasible to use times series analysis to depict the pitting depth growing rule in Oil & Gas pipelines.. But mixing model has more higher predicting precision and is more fitter for predicting the pitting depth of Oil & Gas pipeline than ARIMA model.Colligating the acquired research finding ,A software is empoldered which about times series modeling of pitting depth in Oil & Gas pipeline. Based on Visual Basic 6.0, The software has a friendly human-computer interface, convenient handling and better efficiency. It can be used for predicting the pitting depth of Oil & Gas pipeline expediently.