Hiroaki Electronic Ceramics Factory Negative Thermal Sensitive Resistor Investment Decision Analysis

Nowadays, electron industry is changing quickly. The demand of electron apparatus is increasing tremendously as traditional electronic products being replaced by information electronic ones. The feature of the information product as small and simple in its appearance leads high demand for these kinds of products. In this market condition, for its own further development, Hongming electron-ceramics factory decide to convert its products structure and develop new products to adapt the demand. Among these electron products, NTC has a wide usage. It has a bright prospect in its application and sale.The real options' theory is the application of financial options' theory in the decision-making. It is one of the most frontier researches in the recent decision-making field. As an extension and spread of NPV methods in traditional decision-making, it offers the enterprise new analytic way. It is gaining more and more important application value.This paper, at first, applies traditional investment decision-making methods to analyze NTC items of Hongming electron-ceramics factory. The analysis includes developing trend of NTC; its industry condition; NPV of NTC item and its sensitiveness. Then it concludes that it will have a bright prospect. Secondly, on the basis of using foreign research results and experience for reference, it builds a decision-making model based on the historical data with real options' theory.Through the analysis of the model, we can determine whether to invest the item or not. Meanwhile it can also determine the best invest opportunity if we decide to invest.The research result of this paper provides important evidence for the decision of Hongming electron-ceramics factory to invest NTC item.