Research On Coal Chemical Project Investment Decision-Making Based On Real Options

The development of modern coal chemical industry is an important measure to give full play to the relative resource advantages of coal,ease the contradiction between oil and natural gas supply and demand,and ensure national energy security.Therefore,the investment scale of my country’s coal chemical projects will continue to increase in the future.Coal chemical projects are affected by various uncertain factors during the investment process.How to scientifically evaluate the value of coal chemical projects and make reasonable decisions is an important issue that needs to be resolved in the investment decision process of coal chemical projects.In view of this,this article,based on a review of relevant domestic and foreign research status,based on the idea of real options,uses a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,to conduct an in-depth discussion on the investment decision-making methods of coal chemical projects.The main research work and results are as follows:(1)A comprehensive comparison between the traditional net present value method and the real option method,it is analyzed that the traditional net present value method cannot assess the value of the project under uncertain conditions,while the real option method can deal with such problems.(2)Analyze the value formation mechanism of coal chemical projects.The multi-stage investment process of coal chemical projects is identified,and the real option characteristics of coal chemical project investment are revealed,and various volatility factors faced by coal chemical projects and the value formation path of coal chemical projects are analyzed.(3)Constructed a coal chemical project investment decision-making model.Most of the existing studies assume that the risk-free interest rate is fixed,and based on this,a project investment decision model with random changes in product prices is established.Taking into account the fact that interest rates are fixed and inconsistent with reality,this paper establishes a single-factor decision-making model for coal chemical project investment with random product price changes,and a two-factor decision-making model for coal chemical project investment with random changes in interest rates and prices.(4)Taking a coal-to-olefin project as an example,the above model was applied and the parameters were tested.The results show that the project value assessed by the real option method is significantly higher than the project value assessed by the traditional net present value method,and the project value assessed by the two-factor model is also higher than that of the single-factor model.After checking the parameters,it is not difficult to see that the fluctuation of related parameters will obviously lead to the change of the critical value of each model investment.The above research provides methodological support for the investment value evaluation of my country’s coal chemical projects,and also has a certain reference effect for the investment decision analysis of similar energy projects.