Study On Guidance Effect Estimates Of Vms Based On Sp Survey

In urban traffic network, it is a very complex dynamic process that traffic information influence the change of traffic flow. Traffic flow is formed of individual drivers/travelers. Travelers'behavior will greatly influence the effect of ATIS. One of the challenging tasks of dynamic route guidance system is to truly capture the drivers'response to information and its dyamic influence on traffic flow,and then make an effective guidance strategy which can meet the requirements of both travelers and traffic management department. Based on the review of domestic and abroad research, and the survey of real traffic data from detectors in Beijing,the author constructed the framework and analytic methods for the research of driver route choice behavior in the presence of traffic information. The main contents of this thesis include:Firstly, this paper analyses the following aparts:the rout progress of the travelers choice, the principle and influence factors of the rout choice. States the principle of SP survey and designs the questionnaire of SP survey, analyses the result statistically.Secondly, a logistic regression model about drivers'route choice based on dynamic information from data stemming from the questionnaire is builded, which includes driving years, acquaintance of network, VMS information and so on. The effect of factors on drivers'route choice is analyzed by SPSS.Finally, exponential smoothing is used to calculate average travel time and improved Logit model is uselized to calculate route cost. The influence of VMS on drivers'route choice is simulated by VISSIM. Data monitoring point is used on the congested road and average delay time is colledted in different condition. The influence of VMS on improving road capacity is evaluated at last.