Analysis Of Driving Route Choice Behavior Characteristics And Travel Time Reliability Under VMS Information

With the accelerated development of urbanization,the contradiction between road network traffic demand and infrastructure supply has become increasingly serious.Normalized traffic congestion has become one of the common problems faced by modern cities,such as traffic accidents,environmental pollution,and waste of resources caused by congestion.Many problems have severely restricted the sustainable development of the urban economy.Advanced travel information service system(ATIS)is one of the effective means to alleviate traffic congestion.ATIS can guide and divert traffic flow on congested roads by publishing guidance information,in order to achieve road network flow balance,reduction of traffic delays and improvement of road network operation efficiency.Among them,the variable information sign(VMS)is a key technical means to induce information release.How to use it reasonably and exert its effect has become a hot issue of general concern in the engineering field.The utility value of the guidance system depends on the degree of the effect of the VMS information on the driver’s route choice behavior.This paper studies the driving route choice behavior characteristics under the VMS information and its influence on the reliability of the route travel time,and the scientific release and guidance of the guidance information System construction has theoretical guiding significance and engineering application value.The main content of this article is divided into the following aspects:(1)Investigation and statistical analysis of driving route selection behavior.Analyzed the driving route selection influencing factors,route selection criteria and decision-making process under the guidance information;obtained basic data of the driver’s route selection behavior through SP survey,from the four aspects of the driver’s personal attributes,travel attributes,VMS information attributes,and route change willingness carry out questionnaire design,conduct questionnaire surveys on working days and non-working days,and conduct statistical analysis.(2)Orderly multi-category Logistic modeling of driving route selection behavior.Select personal factors,travel factors,and VMS information factors to construct an ordered multi-category Logistic model of driving route selection behavior.Based on the driver’s route choice behavior data,the route choice model of working days and non-working days is calibrated,and the significant factors and influence rules that influence the driver’s route decision-making on working days and non-working days are quantitatively analyzed.The results show that gender,age,monthly income,driving style,travel distance,VMS content format,and route change criteria are significant factors that affect the driver’s route choice on working days;gender,age,road network familiarity,congestion tolerance,VMS Accuracy and the nature of the content are significant factors that affect the driver’s route choice during non-working days.Through probabilistic clustering,the probability of the driver changing the route on working days is 64.8%,and the probability of the driver changing the route on non-working days is 43.2%.(3)The reliability evaluation system of path travel time under VMS information is established.The reliability evaluation index of the road segment travel time is selected as the tolerable travel time boundary,and the boundary value is determined by the quantile method.On this basis,the path travel time reliability model is established.Microscopic traffic simulation is used to simulate the running state of the road network with or without VMS information,and exponential smoothing is used to calculate the travel time of the road segment.(4)A case study on the reliability of route travel time in the central area of Shinan District,Qingdao.Select the Qingdao city center area as the case to build a VISSIM simulation road network,simulate the operation status of the road network with or without VMS information through the dynamic traffic distribution module and static traffic distribution,and analyze the reliability of the route travel time with or without VMS information on working days and non-working days Impact.The results show that VMS information is beneficial to improve the reliability of the path travel time in different periods.The high driver’s induced obedience rate on working days is the key to the VMS utility;the utility of VMS information has a certain attenuation phenomenon as the distance increases,and the attenuation degree becomes even greater on non-working days obvious.