Of Climate Change On Water Influence And Countermeasures Of The Laizhou Bay Area Study

ABSTRACTAs the global water resources are becoming more and more deficient, theresearch of impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources has been widelyfocused on. At present a great deal of work has been done in the Laizhou BayArea, such as the assessing and planning of water resources, the intrusion ofseawater. But there is no systematic study on the impacts of climate change onwater resources, which has been studied at length exemplifying the Mi Riverdrainage basin in this paper.The impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources in about 40 years inthe Mi River drainage basin are evident. In this basin the annual precipitation is627.2millimeter. In the two four-year wet periods (1961 ~?1964,19731 976),average precipitation is more than the normal. In the two four-year dryperiods (1981 -~ 1984,1 986'-~-- 1989), average precipitation is less than the normal.Accordingly the annual precipitation series( 1958 1990) is divided into moreprecipitation and less precipitation periods equally at the point of 1976. As thewater source of the drainage basin, the precipitation affects the river runoffdirectly. In the Mi River drainage basin the river runoff correlates with theprecipitation evidently with analogous trend.With the drainage basin water balance model, the climate factors areconjoined with the water resources by inputting the climate factors such as thetemperature, the velocity of the wind, the vapor compulsion and the sunshinepercentage and exporting the evaporation, direct runoff, surface runoff and soil3runoff. The modeled river runoff that consists of the direct runoff, surface runoff,soil runoff and basic runoff correlates well with the measured runoff.The water resources are sensitive to the climate change in the Mi riverdrainage basin. The sensitivity of evaporation and runoff to climate change isstudied with 15 future climate scenarios: the temperature change of 0 `C -. 1 `Cand 2 `C, the precipitation change of 0~ ?10 % and ?20 %. The evaporationis more Sensitive to precipitation than to temperature, so is the runoff. Tenpercent increase in precipitation will cause about 6.75 percent increase inevaporation and 11.29 percent increase in runoff. One-centigrade increase intemperature will cause about 0.25 percent increase in evaporation and 0.10percent decrease in runoff. One-centigrade increase in temperature and tenpercent increase in precipitation will cause about 7.05 percent increase inevaporation and 11.24 percent increase in runoff.The future climate change will probably increase the water resources in theMi river drainage basin. The two scenarios provided by IPCC (one from the HDmodel of England, the other from the MPI model of German) are input to thedrainage basin water balance model. The conclusion from the HD scenarioindicates that the evaporation will increase by 0.20 percent and the runoff willincrease by 6.90 percent by the level year 2030. The conclusion from the MPIscenario indicates that the evaporation will increase by 9.86 percent and therunoff will increase by 14.81 percent by the level year 2030. The runoffchanging percentage in autumn and winter is more noteworthy than that inspring and summer.The future climate change will relieve the provide-demand waterdiscrepancy. In the years with frequency of 50 percent, 75 percent and 95percent the corresponding attenuated water is 11, 4 and 2 million cubic meters4by the HD scenario and 24, 9 and 4 million cubic meters by the MPI scenario.Based on the research above the adaptable countermeasures to the futureclimate change are advanced so as to contribute to the area sustainabledevelopment.