Research Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Tarim River Basin Under The Climate Change

Water shortage is a key factor to restrict developing social economy and building ecological environment in Tarim River Basin. The other long-term trend affecting water is climate change. The Water Resources Carrying Capacity is the important basis for economic planning and development, for harmonization between environment system and social and economic development. Tarim River Basin is very short of water resources and its ecological environment is very brittle. Water shortage is a key factor to restrict developing social economy and building ecological environment. The study of water resources carrying capacity has special important signification for the sustainable economy development.In the thesis, the present research results in the domestic and overseas is firstly summarized. The variation characteristics of climate change are analyzed using Morlet wavelet analysis and Trend analysis. Climate change and human impacts on the runoff are quantitatively assessed. Sensitivity of Runoff to Climate Change is analyzed. On the basis of building Water Resources Carrying Capacity Calculation Model, Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin is calculated and the appropriate measures and countermeasures are given. Specifically, the main achievement of this research is as follows:(1) The analysis of climate change characteristics in Tarim River Basin:Based on the annual rainfall and temperature data from1955to2010, the variation characteristics of climate change are analyzed using Morlet wavelet analysis and Trend analysis. The periodic oscillation of rainfall variation and temperature variation at different time scales along the time series are discovered.(2) Quantitative assessment of climate change and human activities impacts on long-term hydrologic response in Tarim River Basin:This article improves the former assessment method to quantitatively distinguish the effects of climate change and human actives to suit the situation that the runoff has the increasing trend. Climate change and human impacts on the runoff are quantitatively assessed. (3) Sensitivity of runoff to climate change in Tarim River Basin:On the basis of analysis of Variation Characteristics of Climate Change and Runoff in Tarim River Basin, the non-linear model among runoff, precipitation and temperature is set up.(4) Research of water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin under the climate change:On the basis of building Water Resources Carrying Capacity Calculation Model, Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin is calculated.