Fatal Aircraft Parts Kill Probability Calculation Method

Calculating kill probabilities of the critical components at hit of various threats is the basis of aircraft vulnerability assessment and vulnerability reduction design. This thesis analyzed some empirical formulas of calculating kill probabilities. It also studies some fragments from anti-aircraft missile warhead and the aircraft model for vulnerability calculation to choose the model of vulnerability test and finite-element simulation. After compared the results of two methods, it decided to calculate kill probabilities using Monte Carlo method which base on finite-element simulation test. In the next, this thesis checked the empirical formulas and verified their applying range. It also applied Uniform Design of Experiment method and Kriging Response surface method to get an algorithm for kill probability.