Improvement Of The Gray Model And Its Application In The Fire Control System

The maneuvering target trajectory prediction is one of the primary missions of fire control system. The traditional method divides it into two steps: firstly, the maneuvering target kinematic model is established;then, a kind of filtering algorithm is selected. Therefore, the final result is decided by the model precision and the algorithm precision. However, it is usually difficult to establish a model to describe maneuvering target's movement accurately. So, "the hypothesis" method is the only way to set up the maneuvering target kinematic model,and the fire control prediction precision is inevitably affected by it. The grey prediction does not need to establish the maneuvering target kinematic model beforehand and predict by grey model that is built by analyzing the information directly. So, it is closer to reality than traditional methods.The grey prediction theory is introduced in this thesis, and the flaws of grey establishing model are also pointed out. Then, the improvement method is proposed. Furthermore, the superiority of grey systems theory and the actual request of fire control were combined, and the computer simulation technique is used to prove the efficiency.Main research results as follows:1. The mechanism and algorithm of grey model are thoroughly analyzed.2. The mechanism and algorithm of GM(1,1) and GM (2,1) model are mainly analyzed. Basing on that, the flaws in modeling process are found and corresponding improved programs are proposed. That is an innovation of the thesis in the grey systems theory. Further, its efficiency are proved by computer simulation.3. Basing on the grey model, the grey prediction is used in the fire control system to complete the maneuvering target trajectory prediction. Furthermore, it is simulated under matlab6.5. It is a kind of exploration on the grey systems theory in military application. This is also an innovation.4. The metabolic wavelet denoising is used to process noisy data.