Grey Prediction And Grey Decision Model And Its Application In The Yellow River Ice-jam Disaster Risk Management

For the ice-jam disasters and water resources system of randomness, fuzziness and grey property, prediction and decision model are established based on grey number information. On grounds of combining actual data of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River and systematical analysis of ice-jam disasters data, the grey prediction and decision model to deal with the problem of ice-jam disasters risk management of the feasibility and effectiveness.Firstly, the interval grey number is divided into “white part” and “grey part” based on real number form by standardizing interval grey numbers, and grey prediction models are established. Then known whitenization weight function is mapped to [0,1] interval function, and the area and the center of gravity of the function can estimate the whitenization function of predictive value.Then, by analyzing the differences and correlations between deviation measure matrix and grey relation measure matrix, synthesized deviation-relation measure matrix is proposed. Two methods of calculating the target weights of multi-objective grey situation decision with grey information are given.for the multi-stage and multi-attribute risk group decision-making problem, a decision-making method is discussed. Analysis techniques and the theory about distance degree are used to determine the decision-maker weights in single stages. And grey relational analysis method is used to determine the attribute weights. Moreover, a multi-objective optimization model is established to obtain time weights expression, so that the comprehensive value could be determined.,we looked into the relationship betweenFinally, the effectiveness and availability of the two methods for grey situation decision are proved by a real case in flood control material of production and management. The average daily flow of the Bayangol station of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River is predicted. This model can limit the predictive value into an interval zone. This interval is composed by lower bound, upper bound and the maximum possible point, and the results show that the forecasting precision is higher. And this model is applied to risk evaluation of the Bayangol station of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River. As the results show, while the ice-jam disaster risk of Bayangol reveals certain wave characteristics, the overall trend remains smooth. The risk degree of ice-jam disaster with Bayangol is expected to decrease in the years between 2013 and 2015.C...