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Wuhai Grid Bp Algorithm Based On Artificial Neural Network Load Forecasting Analysis

Posted on:2009-05-14Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z Y ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2192360275484061Subject:Software engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China's power industry development in recent years of ups and downs, has not been found compared with the coordination of national economic development speed of development. From the late 1990s large area of electricity supply exceeding demand, power generation enterprises, Waterloo, 2001 after the Electrical Scarcity of national, provincial and Lazhaxiandian due to power shortages, electricity production was to become a restricted supply Regional and even national economic growth bottlenecks. The state's macroeconomic policy adjustments, the state has increased the power point construction and investment in power grid construction, basically solved the problem of power shortage nationwide, but in recent years due to the construction of power point Daegan fast, triggered a major power generating companies Happy Valley Circle , Power grid construction has lagged behind the speed, the new Operation of the power plant site did not load to digest, not outward transmission channels, all kinds of new problems and new contradictions already shown.Rich coal reserves in Inner Mongolia, is the country's key energy base. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government under its own advantages in resources, the development of the local energy development planning, taking coal from the air power energy development ideas. Wuhai City is located in western Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia in recent years economic growth in one of the hot spots. Wuhai the western part of Inner Mongolia Power Grid as an important support points and power-delivery point, has also experienced a serious power shortage, Lazhaxiandian, speed up the building, the basic balance, appear contradictory, and gradually adjust this development process.Wuhai compared to the national power grid, the region speaking, have their own characteristics and problems. First, power point rapid development, from 1995's 320,000 kilowatts to the end of 2007 the growth of 2.92 million kilowatts, an increase of more than nine times the second is faster growth in electricity load, from 1998's 1.27 billion kwh of growth to 2007 6.85 billion kwh; Third, the grid structure highlights the problem, the main transformer substation in the region have generally contained, limiting the additional load to bring the fourth is sent to the limited capacity of the East, the new restrictions on speculation Group normal power generation, thereby reducing the entire power grid The ability of the economy. 5 Wuhai is set to the high load of the electricity load in the absolute proportion as high as 80 percent more, with high load is set to a very unstable load, because of its production process and the characteristics of the industry market risk characteristics, Enterprises can contain high Kai furnace, and the Boilers off Load shutdown affected by many factors, is of great instability.Therefore, to load forecast, reasonable arrangements for operation of power grids, power grids in ensuring security under the premise of realizing regional balance of power in situ, that is, the power industry production and the needs for economic operation of the power grid needs. Wuhai Electric Power Bureau in the production and management, accurate load forecast has extremely important practical significance.Power system load forecast is a typical nonlinear problems, because the power load by many factors, these factors affect the size, it is very difficult way through a simple mathematical model describing the establishment, I combine the realities of work and power grids in Wuhai Structural features, the careful study and practical application of the forecast made in the course of varying degrees of simplification. Use of artificial neural network BP algorithm, because of their memory of information, independent learning, knowledge reasoning and optimization characteristics, more suitable for power companies to load changes in the medium-term and short-term forecast management, direct services in electricity production scheduling arrangements for the scientific method, Raise the level of economic power grids.
Keywords/Search Tags:artificial neural network, BP algorithm, load forecasting, Wuhai Power Grid
PDF Full Text Request
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