The Study And Application Of Load Forecasting Software Of Regional Power Grid

The content of this thesis is one of the main components of Shanxi electric power company technology projects--Development and Application of Area Grid Load-forecasting Software. The thesis is put forward against the problems of improving the precision of grid forecasting, reinforcing demand side management, increasing management of electrical enterprise. At the present, with the unprecedented development of power system, accurate load forecasting is good at making power system development program; ensuring the stable, secure and economic operation of power system; contribute to control unit maintenance plan, and also in favor of modernization of electricity derivative and power system.Firstly, the author analyzed many kinds of area grid load-forecasting model such as linear multi-regression mode, exponential smoothing model, time series model, neural network model, emphasizes on the study and discussion of the influence on the short-term load forecasting caused by factor of day type ,weather and holidays On this basis, a RBF neural network model was established .After the comparison of each models, the author gave the conclusion that neural network model and support vector machine model have higher forecasting precision.Secondly, the author studied medium and long term load forecast model such as proportionality factor model, elasticity coefficient model, grey theory model, hybrid forecasting model, emphasizes on the study and discussion of hybrid forecasting method, built optimum hybrid forecasting model, worked out the analytical solution of hybrid forecasting model. A new proposal of monthly load forecasting in long term load forecast was proposed, the neural network model for monthly load forecasting is built.At last, aims at the shortage of present grid load forecasting software, combine with the new development and new achievement of nowadays load forecasting theory, a set of software is worked out. The software have the characteristic of better applicability and stronger flexibility. The software takes the Visual Basic 6.0 and MATLAB 7.4 as development platform, achieve seamless connection between Visual Basic and MATLAB. It takes Visual Basic as developing tool to finish the design of man-machine interface, use MATLAB to calculate some complex mathematical calculation, then show real-time result on man-machine interface with interfacing technology between Visual Basic and MATLAB. The software package has abundant forecasting models, can achieve the purpose of daily load forecasting, monthly load forecasting and annual load forecasting for grid. The software take modular structure, each module is independent form others. The software is easy to expansion.The area grid load-forecasting software have already passed the examination and applied in an area grid company. The software has better man-machine interface and applicability, easy in operation, has preferable engineering application and significance for popularization.