A Study On Investment Clock Of A-share Market In China's Business Cycle

With the development of China's economy and prosperity of capital market, how to grasp the fluctuation of stock market and well adjust portfolio becomes a significant issue. The paper, based on investment clock theory raised by Merrill Lynch, analyzes China business cycle trying to acquire a investment clock appropriate to China A-share market so as to instruct investors a profound way of asset allocation.The paper, firstly, makes a study on regular movements of crucial indications in business cycles and divides China business cycle in 21st century. And then, the author logically makes theoretical and empirical analysis on three main transmit mechanisms from business cycle to industry wheel moving in real economy, and narrows to the transmit mechanism of capital market from business cycle to stock market, concluding three transmit processing in stock market all could adapt to DDM model. Further, the paper focuses on seven typical industry wheels moving in stock market by means of empirical study. In the end, the author concludes the China A-share market's investment clock based the study of Merrill Lynch's report.The whole paper consists of five chapters. Chapter1 mainly introduces background, meaning and method of the study. Chapter2 moves to the study of real economy, analyzing China business cycle in 21st century. Chapter3 explores transmit mechanism from business cycle to industry wheel moving. Last two chapters transmit the focus to fictitious economy. Chapter4 is market performance of industry wheel moving, first inducing affection of business cycle to listing enterprise value estimation, and then empirically analyzing market performance of seven main industries in seven different periods. Chapter5 studies the investment clock for China A-share market.