Research On Logistics-financing Business Risk

Logistics-financing is a recently emerged logistics value-added service, which increases logistics industry's value with financial tools.It's developing rapidly in Zhujiang Delta, Changjiang Delta and Bohai-surround areas and some cities in Northwest China. Presently, many professionals reckon logistics-financing as a new benefit origin of Logistics industry, which has a very bright future. As logistics-financing has become a focus in logistics research, many scholars are doing research on various aspects of it, for example, the advantages, modes, risks and control, etc. Most of these studies are qualitative; quantitative analyses are not so much.Based on existing literatures and relative books'study, business risks of banks and logistics enterprises are qualitatively analyzed, and according control measures are given. Logistics-financing is different from traditional credit because it pays more attention to inventory's self-repay ability than the enterprise's credit rank which leads to the impropriety of traditional risk-evaluation models.So a project risk evaluation model is designed for banks that launch the newly developed logistics financing business here. Triangle fuzzy numbers and group decision-making theory are introduced in the problem of risk evaluation of logistics financing projects.After an index system is given, AHP,fuzzy variables decision methods andλ-average-area ordering method are applied to the fuzzy multi-decision-maker risk evaluation model.A calculation is given to prove the practicality and the effectiveness of this model.It helps the decision maker to recognize the high risk projects which will be dispensed more human and material resource, so the risk will be well controlled. Loan-to-value ratio is another important risk control method. In actual business, this index is assessed on the experience and negotiation.In this paper, historical simulation method of VAR is applied to measure the future price's dropping-down risk, which offers a scientific basis for deciding the loan-to-value ratio. In actual business, security policy is an effective way to reduce credit risk for banks, at the same time increase the default cost of financing enterprises. Other than maximizing bank's profit as the object function, a loan-to-value determination mold is designed based on security policy from a co-win view point, aiming to present a new point of view for loan-to-value ratio's assessing.