Using The Extended Urbanization Of Land Based On Gis And Ca Model Simulation And Prediction

Urbanization is a complex process of the space-temporal conversion,It includes the conversion between the various types of land within the city and the process of city continue expansion.The human use land resources are limited, how to build a city model to describe, simulate and analyze a variety of complex behavior,which have shown in the process of evolution, has a great theoretical and practical significance.Urban spatial expansion is a complex space-temporal dynamic process,which involves many social factors, and the development of the urban form constantly changing to adapt to the change of functional requirements. Simply using traditional static models have been unable to meet the requirements of simulating the process of urban dynamic system. Geography cellular automata (GeoCA) is a space-temporal discrete dynamic model.It is the typical method that studies on complex systems with the space-temporal variety, specially fitting to the simulation of space-temporal dynamic variety of the urban complex systems.This paper takes the land use evolvement of Chenggong as the research object,and the theory of geographical cellular automata as the modeling approach. On the basis of the summary of the development of CA model current level and development trend in the domestic and international and the theory of CA and urban land use evolvement, the paper uses urban dynamic evolvement model (GeoCA-Urban) which put forward by my country and scholars,and takes Chenggong County in Yunnan Province as the study area,The combination of the GIS technology and GeoCA-Urban model is used to simulate and forecast the land use evolvement of Chenggong.This paper obtains Chenggong expansion trend of urbanization in the future 10 years by analysis,and provids references for the government departments and experts to achieve the regional long-term planning,intensive use of land and sustainable development.The paper is divided into the following sections:The first part introduces the background of the problem, the research significance and the research status of the theory and the technology at home and abroad as well as the research content and research methods.The second part focuses on the related theories of cellular automata:concept, composition, basic features, related applications, especially application in geography and the study of extension of the model. And the application of the expansion of cellular automata theory in the urban land use evolvement, Finally, the article introduces the theory of urban land use evolvement and the research methods.The third part introduces the study area and the basic data used in experiments which is pre-treatment from the collected data.The fourth part describes GeoCA-Urban model which is used in the test,through repeated testing two periods of data in 1990 and 2004 to determine a suitable Chenggong GeoCA-Urban model, the simulation result of Chenggong in 2006 tests the model, and predicts the land use evolvement of Chenggong in 2020 by the basic data in 1990 and 2006 in the end, This paper obtains Chenggong expansion trend of urbanization in the future 10 years.The fifth part is the Summary and the forecast.