With the rapid development of urbanization, the demand of urban land is increased which leads to tension contradiction of land usage. Therefore, there must be a reasonable urban land using plan to lead to the urban planning. As the control factors of urban land using are complex and the key characteristic are difficult to extracted, this paper had given a new method of simulating and forecasting based on combining the cellular automatic system with GIS. The main works are as follows:First, the classical theory of cellular automata had been analyzed and expanded based on the characters of urban system, then combined with GIS system. The ArcGIS software and programming were used to process the data required. The BP neural network was Used to get the law of urban land using, and then extracted the law as the rule of cellular automata transforming. Then the visual output had been got through GIS system. By this way, urban CA had been built to research the land using of city area.Second, the Wuxi-CA had been established. By using the remote sensing map of Wuxi in 1991, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010 and other social economic data, the data of 1991 for input, data of 2010 used of the teacher data to obtain the rule of Wuxi land using change. Run the Wuxi-CA to get the simulation of land using status in 2001, 1998, 2008 and 2010 of Wuxi.The results had showed that the simulation method got the Lee- Sallee shape index of 0.683, 0.604, 0.595 and 0.586. This means this method had achieved the simulation expectation. At last, the city land using states of Wuxi in 2012 had been forecasted on this basis.Third, the simulation maps of city land using of Wuxi had been evaluated. A lot of data abstracted from the nature, economy and policy and traffic had been used to analysis the change of city land using status in Wuxi. Suggestions were given based on the predicted results for land using of city area of Wuxi in 2012.Finally, the simulation had proofed that, the method of combining the cellular automata and the GIS system to build the urban CA, can predict the land using of city area to a certain extent in the situation of with regard to the sudden policy and other disturbance. This method has the significance value to the research of land using of city area. |