| After the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, these years the Chinese real estate market faced all kinds of ups and downs under numerous factors. Stagnant in 2008 to the strong rebound in 2009, and then to New Deal regulation in 2010. All the attention in the whole society has been paid to the house price. Whether the house price will go up or down? Whether it's economical to buy a house? National regulation will bring what kind of impact on the house market? Such problems came one after another. As ordinary people, they concerned more about whether I can afford a house. As a populous country, China's huge housing demand a large market, and in view of the national income and the current housing market, most people can only choose to buy houses on loans to achieve their desire. This means that house prices in on the "roller coaster" and also took a huge amount of housing loans.How to control the risk of home mortgages, to prevent the Chinese-style subprime mortgage crisis have become the focus of the current concerns of all walks of life.However, as the mortgage payment of major financial institutions-the commercial banks, they think that the risk of the loans can be controlled. Recently, reports on lending pressure test from major commercial banks show that house prices had fell 30%, but commercial banks are still able to calmly deal with rising bad loans. As we all know, the real estate market trends and a country's economy have a delicate relationship, if there is sharp decline in housing prices, the state's macroeconomic environment will also be influenced. This will have an enormous impact on lending loans. Time will tell Whether the test report can be as optimistic as the report shows conducted in the commercial banks.This article focuses on the risk monitor of mortgages. After reading and organizing lots of information, the author has found that a number of previous scholars made a thorough study on the issue, and has formed a few big schools, but compared to foreign countries, most of our scholars focus on qualitative analysis, or on the analysis of the case. Thus, they raised a lot of institutional or management approaches. However, how to quantify the credit risk is relatively poor. Quantitative credit risk means to quantify the risk of loans with financial engineering and computer technology and other disciplines of knowledge, this study will be of a certain significance both in theory and in practice.This paper describes the current development of China's real estate market, and briefly analyses the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the revelation to our housing credit. Further, this study puts forward the key issue-how to control home loans risk? Subsequently, the article briefly lists the risk of housing loans to domestic and international monitoring in different research results, focusing on information asymmetry, and asset securitization option theory these three research directions. After studying large amounts of data, the author found that domestic scholars have relatively less study on the risk of quantitative research, so the new points of this study is that the credit monitoring model applied slightly to improve our home loans. This not only increases the theoretical significance of risk quantification, it also gives the warnings of the risks in real estate market in China.Then this article introduces the theoretical basis-KMV model, which is used in listed companies for the credit monitoring model and an extensible database. It inherits the Merton model of option pricing theory and methodology, use the change of assets in listed companies to estimate the probability of default on debt. The improved KMV model not only useful for listed companies, but also extended to non-listed companies as well as risk monitoring on personal loans.After introducing the KMV model theory, this article begins to analysis the risks housing mortgage loans faced. Based on Basel Accord's definition of risk banks faced, this article analyses through from the credit risk, operational risk, market risk, the three aspects of housing mortgage loans, supplemented by cases from the practice of this study-Housing mortgage loans are facing many risks. And clearly, the monitoring of these risks is insufficient.The fifth chapter is the core of this article, which first introduced the existing mortgage review in the Commercial Bank of China, and discusses the limitations of its risk prevention, and by drawing on the theoretical framework of the KMV model, it puts all the elements that will affect the mortgage into consideration. Thus, calculated the expected default probability, supported by the data description. Concluded:EDF the expected default rate of bad loans is more representative of future risk, non-performing loan rate of. default has occurred only of ratio part of total loans, while real estate is based on the expected default rate market and interest rate changes, will be able to make the first assessment of the risks. We believe that it is more representative to future risk housing loans. In this paper, it makes reasonable assumptions on real estate market, used the KMV model to measure the main types of the current housing loan default rates. The results showed that when the house prices, interest rate fluctuations in a certain range, the risk of storm drain will be in much greater degree than predicted.The innovation of this paper is that it applied the advanced model of credit monitoring-KMV model to the study of personal loans in risk monitoring, combined with several main analysis in China, it has some certain theoretical significances in credit risk prevention of the personal loans. In addition, this article make great breakthrough to the limitations of previous loans, put forward the use of financial engineering model proposed by dynamic monitoring credit. This post-loan management of commercial banks has some practical significance. |
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