China's Urban Registered Unemployed Persons And Registered Urban Unemployment Rate Of Factor Analysis, Modeling And Policy Recommendations

The problem of unemployment is an important issue in the research field of economics. It is not only a main policy goal in macroeconomics, but also the fundamentality of people's livelihood, which is closely bound up with individuals'lives. China's economic growth is rapid, while the unemployment rate is high. The reason of this phenomenon which is different from the general economic theory has been researched by some scholars and they obtained some good theoretical results. But they are not enough depth and a single point of view. Based on existing research results and overcoming the shortcomings of existing research results, I try to discuss the reason why the rate of unemployment keeps on in a high level and set up unemployment models, and at last make some policy proposals. Firstly I introduce the theory of unemployment, which contains: unemployment theory of Keynesian school; unemployment theory of monetary school; unemployment theory of develop economics school; Okun's Law and the reason why it is getting aberrant in China now. Secondly I introduce the domestic and foreign research about the problems of unemployment in developing countries. There are two important theories abroad: the model of dual economy, and the theory of Todaro's expected salary difference. At last, I introduce the discuss about the character and the reason of unemployment in our country by the domestic scholars, such as the transfer of the rural labor force in the condition of dual economy; and the research about the relation between economic growth and employment's increase; and the problem about unemployment statistics. From these theories and current situation, I analyze the factors of high unemployment in our country. There are the problems of unemployment statistics in China, household register system, the effect of labor market segmentation, the impact of creating employment in state-owed enterprises, the existence of minimum wage system, the huge amount of the population in China, and the depravation of the carving out environment.I select 22 macro economic factors based on the data from National Bureau of Statistics of China and according to the domestic and foreign models. These factors are aimed to be integrated, credible and systemic. I also classify and merge these factors so as to make analysis. At last, I wish to make models about registered unemployment population and registered unemployment rate in cities and towns by the use of Factor Analysis and Regression Analysis.At last, based on the model and the unemployment problems in our country, I struggled to find a way to reduce the pressure of unemployment. As I aimed to lower the rate of unemployment in China to normal, we should make our efforts to the aspect as follows: persisting in creating employment in the industrial structure adjustment, developing the new countryside construction, reforming the household register system, cultivating the intermediary agents of labor market, improving the environment of carving out, and training carving education, developing non-public economy.