Empirical Study Of Rural Inhabitants' Preventative Savings Motivation Strength In Hainan Province

Ever since economists began to study the theory of precautionary savings, it has been an important branch of researching the consumption and savings behavior of inhabitants. The precautionary savings theory mainly studies the effect of uncertainties on the consumers' behavior. The main goals of empirical study of preventative savings are to find the uncertainties that influence inhabitants'consumption decisions, and then to analyze the strength of these uncertainties.Since the establishment of Hainan province, the national economy has achieved rapid development and the savings of inhabitants has gained unusual sustained growth. However, the consumption keeps declining and this economic phenomenon catches much attention. Based on the current precautionary savings theory, we choose the consumption expenditure as the variable to measure risks in the empirical analysis. Taking relative statistics data during 1990 and 2008 from Hainan Statistical Yearbook and Hainan Yearbook and using the precautionary savings model by Dynan, this article examines the regional difference and sequential variation of rural inhabitants'preventative savings motivation strength in Hainan province. The aim of this article is to analyze the factors that affect rural inhabitants' preventative savings by studying the economic phenomenon through precautionary savings theory. This study could provide reasonable policy advice for enlarging rural inhabitants' consumption need and further development of regional economy, industrialization, urbanization and rural economy of Hainan province.The content of this article consists of seven sections. The first part briefly introduces the background of selecting the subject and the researching meaning of this article. It describes the researching objects and main content as well as general frame of this article. The second part mainly gives the implication of preventative savings. It states relative theoretical supports for preventative savings theory and introduces the birth of preventative savings theory as well as the research actuality of preventative savings at home and abroad at present to make a good theoretical basis for the research. The third part emphasizes several common precautionary savings models and their problems. After comparison, this article takes Dynan's model as research model and chooses agent variable to measure risks. The fourth and fifth parts are empirical sections. By selecting relative statistics, these parts empirically analyze the regional difference and sequential variation of rural inhabitants' preventative savings motivation strength in Hainan's eighteen cities and counties from 1990 to 2008 and compare the result with domestic rural inhabitants' preventative savings motivation standard. According to the results of the fourth and fifth parts, the sixth part analyzes main factors which influence rural inhabitants' preventative savings motivation strength in Hainan province. The last part describes the conclusions. It gives main research results after analysis and further provides reasonable policy advice for development of regional economy, industrialization, urbanization and rural economy in Hainan.The main contributions of this article are as follows. For the first time, it tries to estimate the regional difference and sequential variation of rural inhabitants'preventative savings motivation strength in Hainan province during 1990 to 2008. For the first time, it tries to find the dynamic reasons behind the regional difference and sequential variation of preventative savings motivation strength, and analyzes main factors that affect rural inhabitants' preventative savings motivation strength in Hainan province. Moreover, it studies the influence mechanism that the policy of Hainan regional economy, industrialization, urbanization and rural economy development has on preventative savings. It finally provides basis for making useful economy policy to stimulate consumption, enlarge inner need, decrease the rate of savings and promote economic self-growth.This article combines theoretical analysis with empirical study. In studying the rural inhabitants'preventative savings motivation strength in Hainan province from 1990 to 2008. It employs comparative analysis method to analyze the difference among every region from lateral and vertical angle. In time direction, it applies dynamic analysis method and takes five years as an interval to observe the actual changing process of rural inhabitants'preventative savings motivation strength depending on time.The following are the conclusions of this article. Firstly, in the sample interval, the preventative savings motivation does exist obviously in Hainan rural inhabitants in general and the strength is 3.213510. Secondly, in the sample interval, the rural inhabitants' preventative savings motivation strength in every region of Hainan province is different from each other and also are not connected with the economic development level. According to the research, the data of the rural inhabitants'preventative savings motivation strength in eastern is 2.580110, the central is 2.715357, the western is 2.384114. Thirdly, in the sample interval, there is notable sequential variation in the rural inhabitants'preventative savings motivation strength in every region in Hainan, there are pace and tendency discrepancy among regions.Based on the conclusions, this article gives policy advice mainly from six aspects. Firstly, create a loose rule environment to improve rural inhabitants' income level entirely. Secondly, further optimize the industrial structure and reduce the income gap between urban and rural inhabitants. Thirdly, actively apply the regional economic strategy of balance development to reduce the gap among the eastern, middle and western region. Fourthly, set up a complete social security system and improve the quality and quantity of public fundamental service and enhance the social security to adjust the transfer payment ability in rural inhabitants' consumption expenditure. Fifthly, accelerate impelling rural finance system reform, establish and improve the rural financial credit system to ease rural inhabitants'"potential restrain". Sixthly, speed up impelling the construction of international tourist island and broaden rural inhabitants'employment channels to radically improve rural inhabitants'income ability radically.