Manufacturing Industry In China Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Early-warning Model Study

A large number of foreign multinational company brought the local business enterprise unprecedented development opportunity after our country join the WTO. On the other hand, it also made them face a rigorous challenge. The management condition of the local business enterprise, especially the particularly large listed company is close connected with the development of the nation, the local business enterprise can hold tight opportunity or not to reply competition and challenge, the better development is quite important. Because once finance crisis occurs, it will give the investor, creditor and business enterprise even the nation disadvantageous influence. Establishing the finance crisis early-warning system and early-warning model can send out early-warning signal in time before it face financial risk for our country manufacturing industry listed company adopting measure as early as possible to evade risk possibly and reduce loss. Building up a set of system of early-warning efficiently accurate finance crisis' becomes the problem that is cared by many related people even the nation, also drawing on many scholars unremittingly quest, looking for a more accurate efficiently early-warning method.The reason of business enterprise sinking into the predicament or bankruptcy may be various, there could be internal factor, such as the bad management, the low science and technology content in product and blind investment etc.; there is also the exterior reason, such as inflation, economy decline, the substitute appear and the consumer needs take place variety etc.. But the financial condition of the enterprise is the very important one in numerous factors in causing the business enterprise bankruptcy. Any decline of enterprise must process from quantity to quality, from small to serious, even the business enterprise bankrupt to close down. Under this circumstance, building up our country listed company the early-warning system seem to be very necessary in order to do an accurate judgment to the management condition of the listed company. According to the above reasons, So the purpose of this paper is to find warning indicators that can remarkably distinct the financial crisis companies and the non-financial crisis companies through analyzing financial indicators of the listed companies and establish warning model on financial crisis that is suitable for the listed companies of our country Provide the making-policy basis and the advice for related respects. textual and main contents be to listed company the concrete data of various finance index signs carry on a detailed analysis, find out can distinguish analyses the finance crisis company and the non-finance crisis company of finance index sign, get the influence our country manufacturing industry listed company finance crisis of main factor, build up the in keeping with our country manufacturing industry listed company on this foundation of finance crisis early-warning model, once the influence factor occurrence change, the early-warning model will produce result then, can be in time accurate of for each related the decision provide the basis and the reference opinion.The thesis selected 24 ST companies and their counterparts in the listed manufacturing companies in 2009 as research specimens, and picked up 18 financial indexes according to the actual situation of listed companies in China and on the reference of financial index widely adopted in empirical research at the time for study. On the basis of data in 2007 and for the purpose of simplifying variable and reducing dimension, it compresses the 18 index by means of factor analysis in order to analyze the 5 common factors which are closest to financial crisis of listed companies, i.e. profitability, cash flow operation, short-term debt service and long-term debt service. Further more, the thesis makes a logistic analysis to the 5 factors and finally constructs the logistic models, thus providing a tool which can predict financial crisis of company with relative accuracy for administrators to make final decision.