Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of China 's Manufacturing Listed Companies

With the pace of economic globalization is accelerating, competition among domestic companies in various industries continue to tend to incandescence, whether large and small companies are trying listing and strive to become the industry benchmark for which, therefore,the number of China’s listed companies has been rising. However, due to inadequate management of some listed companies, coupled with the financial crisis of the United States and Europe’s debt crisis spread around the world, the operating conditions of many listed companies are increasingly difficult and then get into a management crisis, most of which run into crisis are first appeared in the financial crisis, and the occurrence of the financial crisis is not to become a cluster, it is a process of development, so how can we discover the anomalies of corporate finance earlier and how to control before the event happen, not only business owners concern, but also other companies concerns. So to construct a reasonable, accurate financial crisis early warning model to help companies discover financial crisis is very necessary.The company developed to a certain extent and to meet national standards before they can be listed on the market, so the listed companies in many aspects has certain advantages, and their quality and quantity direct impact the stock market running. The manufacturing industry in China’s listed companies has the greater proportion, the quality of its operations and financial condition affect the China’s economy, so early to predict the financial situation of the industry is necessary and it is important to avoid the crisis.First, the article describes the background and the significance, then summarizes the financial crisis definition, factors and researches on the financial crisis early warning at home and abroad.and then determines the study samples of this article and the crisis early warning indicators. Finally select Altman’ s Z-score model and Logistic model to research.The samples of this paper are divided into modeling and testing samples, the modeling samples include 25 manufacturing companies which were listed on special treatment list first during 2011 to 2013,and 25 normal manufacturing companies.The testing samples include 23 listed companies in the manufacturing sector and which were listed on special treatment list first in 2014,and 23 normal manufacturing companies. First, using the Z-score model to study, and before the study we should re-definite the Z-score, in order to make the model more suitable for China’s manufacturing companies. And then using the Logistic model,before making the model,we should select the significant indicators,because there is a strong correlation between the selected early warning indicators, we use the indicators which have quite differently features to make model. Finally, the test samples were used to test the two models and we can get: when we predicted the crisis before two years,the accuracy rate of the corrected Z-score model was 80.4%,Logistic model was 89.1%;and before three years to predicted the crisis,the accuracy rate of the corrected Z-score model was 71.7%,Logistic model was 84.8%; And the time more closer to the special treatment, the prediction accuracy of the two models are higher;And the Logistic model has higher predicting accuracy rate. But overall speaking,both models have a high predictive power,and they can give us some guidance in practical applications.