China's Macro Credit Management Of The Impact Of Economic Growth Empirical Analysis

With the rapid development of Chinese economy, the amount of credit has witnessed a swift growth. The management of credit has played an important role to stimulate and stable the fluctuation of economy in the past. However, there are also many problems arose, such as the excessive growth of credit, the imbalance growth of credit structure and so on. These problems definitely affect the growth of economy, which has draw people's attention about how to manage the growth of credit.Firstly, this paper will try to describe the development path of the credit policy and system since the establishment of China, and also try to summarize the characteristics and problems from the history of credit growth. Then, based on the model about the relationship between the macro-management of credit and economy growth, it discusses and analysis the effect on the latter using methods of VAR, Granger Causality, and Impulse response test and so on. The conclusion is that the increase of credit contributes much more than the non-credit asset to economic growth in the short term contrast to the long-term results. However, the long-term tendency of the credit structure has revealed to be exogenous variable to the model.Through the analysis, we found that if there is an increasing credit supply to stimulate the growth of economy, the effect will decrease in the long term. So it is quite necessary to develop a diversified banking system. Also, the exogenous of the credit structure also reflect the particular characteristics of the development of credit market in China.Finally, this paper gives reasonable enlightments to the macro-management of credit in China and effective method to boost the long-term economic growth.