China's Fiscal Economic Forecasting

Financial revenue is a main channel for government to earn income, financial revenue is also the basis of national implementation of policies. At present, China's socialist market economic system are maturing, Challenges facing the financial work increasingly large, On the one hand, our nation significantly increased the role of financial functions, not only is the main way to get revenue, but also an important means of macroeconomic control. On the other hand, our nation's financial and economic forecasting function significantly lags behind the advanced Western countries in urgent need of improvement. In today's economy, enhancing the function of financial and economic forecasts have become an urgent economic lesson for governments to address the major issues.At present, our nation carry out the system of dividing taxes financial control, state revenues are made of the central government revenue and local revenue, the role of local revenue is more special, it's important as the national component of revenue, but also has an independent characteristics. This article predicts the state revenue and local financial revenue by mathematical model respectively, the local financial and economic forecasts is a national foundation to strengthen macroeconomic management, owing to different regions have significantly different levels of economic development, fiscal policy also has significant regional .Therefore, if we want to make scientific and rational economic forecast of local government, we must be integrated into a variety of variable factors.In this paper, mathematical models is a research tool, there is an assumption that current policies remain unchanged, through the analysis of economic theory and our financial and economic situation, to establish scientific and reasonable prediction model of general revenue finance, and analysis tax revenue of China's major tax in general trends, to provide a reasonable basis for developing the budget. Now all levels of government forecasting mainly focused on the experience of estimating, based on the subjective, the actual experience of working is in high demand, the results of forecast are lack of scientific support, and repeatability is not high. Through the establishment of a scientific prediction model based on economic principles, not only can improve the prediction accuracy, but also to provide reasons for the changes, as a reasonable data model ,to provide theoretical support, to provide more information for policy-makers, and to provide more evidence for the government's macro-control.Through analysis and comparison of central and local government revenue, making all levels of government to comply with "live within its means" and "be supported by income" budget policy, arrange for public expenditure reasonably. Predict China's local and regional levels revenue through the establishment of mathematical model, and analysis of predicted results comparatively, propose improvement ideas, to be a theoretical guidance of all levels of government.