The International Oil Price Fluctuations In The Empirical Research On China's Macro-economic Impact

Oil, as an important energy source in today's world, is accounting for about 40% of the global energy consumption, which is known as"Industrial blood"and"economic lifeline"and has a significant impact on national economies. The changes of its price naturally affect the sensitive nerve of the economic field. Therefore, the impacts that oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic have become the focus of attention and study in the world, particularly in industrial countries.China became a net oil importer since 1993, oil external dependence has increased annually. At present, China is in the process of rapid economic development and industrialization. Therefore, the demand for petroleum goes up continuously. Oil, as an essential strategic resource and basis of chemical raw materials, concerns the development of all trades and professions and plays an increasingly important influence on the national economic development. Therefore, the study of the impact of oil price fluctuations on the macroeconomic can help us to understand how the international oil price fluctuations affect Chinese macroeconomic and guide our government to take appropriate economic policies in the face of oil shocks, thus contributing to the healthy development of Chinese macro-economic.This paper mainly studies the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic. It starts with the theoretical analysis of the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic and then introduces the Granger causality test and Cointegration test. On the basis, this article uses ECM model to do the empirical research. The final conclusion:(1) The international oil price fluctuations have Granger causality on Chinese gross domestic product, consumer price index and the broad money supply and the lag is almost identical. Meanwhile, international oil prices have cointegration-relationship with China's gross domestic product, consumer price index and the broad money supply.(2) The international oil price shock has a significant negative impact on the output levels and the broad money supply, while has a significant positive impact on the consumer price level. Moreover, compared to the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on the monetary policy and the price level, the international oil price shocks has greater impact on the level of Chinese output. (3) Because the oil pricing mechanism of our country has not totally integrated with the international oil price mechanism and oil prices are at the top of the production chain, the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic has a certain lag effect.(4) The international oil price movements can cause the fluctuations of the consumer price level, the broad money supply and our gross domestic product in the short term, while the changes of our gross domestic product and monetary policy have a significant impact on international oil prices. However, changes in the consumer price level cannot obviously cause the fluctuation of t the international oil price.