Public Debt,House Prices And Macroeconomic Fluctuation

In the process of socio-economic development, economic volatility is always accompanied by economic growth. Since the implementation of reform and opening up, the national economy has been rapid development, China's total GDP in 2014 ranked second in the world. But the domestic economy made such a brilliant success behind the downward pressure on the domestic economy is more obvious, economic fluctuations have further exacerbated the trend. Factors causing macroeconomic fluctuations What? How to slow economic fluctuations, government and academia has become the current problems to be solved. Since China's current debt problems and the issue price, so this to the public debt and property price perspective, investigate their impact on macroeconomic fluctuations, and to propose the corresponding solutions.This paper is structured as follows: The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter is the theoretical part, on the economic cycle theory, including the classic theory of economic cycles, calculation method of the economic cycle, the length and causes. The third chapter conduction from internal and external shocks both analyzes the formation mechanism of Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations, and introduced the public debt and property prices affect the mechanism of economic fluctuations. The fourth chapter of Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations statistical description, the fifth chapter of the empirical part, Chapter VI policy recommendations.From the perspective of public debt and house prices starting using China from 1997 to 2014 Statistical Yearbook, Financial Yearbook, the official website of the World Bank data, constructs VAR model GDP growth rate, public debt, real estate prices, inflation and the Gini Coefficient, the following conclusions:(1) public debt, real estate prices, the Gini coefficient and inflation is caused by fluctuations in macroeconomic factors, and there is cointegration relationship between them and the GDP growth rate.(2) the impulse response indicates that an increase in public debt in the short term to promote economic development, but in the long run will affect GDP growth rising, rising real estate prices and the Gini coefficient in the short term to promote economic growth, but this effect is not obvious to promote.(3) will rise in the economic development of inflation lasting inhibition.Given the empirical results, we propose the following policy recommendations:(1) improve the issuance and management of public debt, and improve the efficiency of public debt;(2) reasonable regulation of property prices to prevent price fluctuations;(3) adhere to the scientific fiscal and monetary policy reduce inflationary pressures;(4) do everything to raise incomes, reduce inequality.