Underground Economy Research Of Measurement

As one special economic phenomena, the economic activity which the underground economy covers is extremely widespread. For example, producing and selling fake and shoddy commodities underground factories, smuggling, drug trafficking, pornography, gambling, trafficking in persons and the operation of a business without a license, and falsifying invoices, misappropriation or embezzlement of state assets and bribery, hidden jobs, and all kinds of transactions on the black market are all here for the underground economy.The underground economy gradually has assumed potential of the suddenly inflation since 1978 in our country, and is exerting by its unique way to our country social economy is being advantageous or the disadvantageous influence. However, under the China existing statistical system in the calculation underground economy aspect is the existence certain limitation. Under its influence, China's statistical community for many years to the underground economy does not pay sufficient attention to quantitative research. At present, China is very little quantitative information on the underground economy. This for carried on the depth to the underground economy the research to bring the enormous difficulty.However, it is not without regret, as promulgated by the United Nations Statistics Department in 1968 SNA, underground economic activities are not considered to be in production and is not in favor of production will be included in the accounting area. In the 1993 SNA, the underground economy does not contain smuggling, prostitution, embezzlement, bribery, but as mentioned in the contemporary theorists have covered a much larger underground economy.In China, the size of the underground economy not only in terms of aggregate research, we also need the geographic distribution of China's underground economy explore. We can also combine other areas of the methods for analysis of the size of the underground economy, for example, from a tax perspective estimate for the size of China's underground economy. Moreover, it may be regular or irregular activities of the underground economy household survey estimated underground economic activity and income scale. Taken as a whole, and more or less mastered the size of the underground economy and as GDP growth of the underground economy, the impact of the unemployment rate, the monetary and fiscal policies to promote the effective implementation and enforcement.In this paper, the absorption of domestic and foreign experts and scholars to study the underground economy as measured by various achievements, including : the direct investigation model of Warner and Simons, the transaction estimating models of Feige, differences in total revenue and total expenditure act, the amended Gray System model of Dr. Xia Nanxin, P·Gagon's models of the cash ratio and so on. My main aim is to forecast the actual size of the underground economy in an orderly way to find a way to measure the majority of scholars to provide a reference or emulation platform. Through methods of estimation of these studies find a rational and scientific way to measure the development of China's reform, opening up and development direction for the estimated size of the underground economy.