The International Financial Crisis Infectious Study

The three financial crises in 1990s——European Currency System Crisis, Latin American Crisis and Southeast Asian Crisis, all of them have showed the character of contagions. Crisis would spread rapidly from one country to another and at last turn into a regional crisis. Due to frequently occurrence of financial crisis, its damage is more and more heavy, which even affects the stability of government. Therefore, it is a common issue for every nation to control the contagion among different countries.This thesis takes Southeast Asian Crisis as an example; and uses the methods of Unit Root Test, Co-integration Test, Granger Cause Test and Impulse Response Function to analyze the contagion effects in Southeast Asian Crisis. The result shows concrete routs of infection. Based on the above, this thesis gives a detailed analysis of contagion channel, which includes trade, finance and anticipate channels.According to the empirical results and demonstration, one country must improve trade structure, cautiously carry out capital liberation, work out elastic exchange rate policy, and adopt effective measure when crisis contagion happened. At the same time, it is important to reinforce area cooperation and perfect international financial system, which can effectively prevent crisis contagion. As for China, the specific measures include: reforming economic and banking system while keeping healthy economy, opening financial market step by step and building crisis early warning mechanism.