Empirical Analysis Of Oil Price Volatility And Macroeconomic Relations

Oil is called the blood of the industry whose price increasment attracts attention of many countries. Accompanying by the development of China's economy and the going on of industrialization, the demand for oil and foreign dependency rises, being a vital strategical commodity and chemical material, oil plays an important part in the whole economic life of China .In recent years, international oil price fluctuates frequently and increases because of the influence of production,supply, politics and economy. The establishment of oil pricing system in line with international market makes our economy under influence of international oil price. So the study of the influence on our economy and the transmission mechanism of international oil price shock is very important for the understanding of how international oil price shock influences our economy and then the Countermeasures.Internation oil price shock; VAR model ;uncertainty; transmission mechanismIn this literature ,we focus to analyze the influence on our macro economy of international oil price shock according to impulsive response function and variance decompositions under VAR model, and test in practice the different influence on our economy of various oil price shocks and its transmission mechanism by establishing dissymmetrical model of international oil price shock.Empirical research demonstrated that : international oil price shock has significantly impact on our economy : it decreases industrial output,increases price and changes monetary policy; The asymmetry relationship between international oil price and output exits in our country: output growth has a significant negative correlation with oil price increase and an insignificant correlation with oil price decrease . There is evidence that in our sample oil market disruption affected our economy through the sectoral shocks channel and uncertainty channels .These two channels have the ability to explain the asymmetric relationship between oil price and output growth because that: oil market disruptions not only affect the level of oil price .but also raise oil volatility .there is evidence that the monetary channel can explain partial asymmetric relationship between oil and output growth.